Disastrous Scottish showing could not have come at a worse time

In Edinburgh's case in particular this staggering fall from grace could hardly have come at a worse time at a time when restructuring of European competition is on the table.

Their march to last season's semi-finals had been the only credible competitive argument made in the past 17 years for the right of Scottish and Italian teams to be guaranteed places in this competition.

This time, the four teams from those countries are now the only ones without as much as a losing bonus point.

Glasgow's failure must be seen as at least partly self-inflicted following the controversial restructuring of the team's management.

Gregor Townsend, Glasgow's rookie head coach, showed naivety when he declared after their failure at home against Ulster on Friday that they could still reach the quarter-finals. It was left, instead, to Al Kellock, their captain, to sum up the reality of the situation as he slumped back in his chair in the press room.

Identified many years ago by the great Todd Blackadder as a leader of men when the pair were at Edinburgh, it is not in the nature of the 6ft 9in lock to contemplate giving up, but his was a frank analysis. "It is tough," he said. "I don't think after two games I would ever say it is 100% over but it makes it extremely difficult.

"I don't know what the statistics are for teams getting out of their group after two defeats in the first two games – but they are probably not very good."

In fact, in the 17-year history of the Heineken Cup no side has ever lost its first two pool matches and still reached the quarter-finals.

That explains why Jim Mallinder, who steered Northampton Saints to the final two seasons ago, admitted to having been worried when his team were trailing Glasgow by 15 points eight days ago.

As he explained, he remembered only to well being effectively knocked out in the second round of matches last season when they lost at home to the Scarlets. It also explains why Shane Horgan, a member of the squad that has won three Heineken Cups in the last four years, described those same Scarlets as "having gone out without a whimper" when they lost their second match of this season's tournament to his old Leinster colleagues on Saturday afternoon. The Welsh side have one more point than Glasgow.

In none of the nine previous seasons since bonus points were introduced to the competition has fewer than 19 points been sufficient to qualify. Having failed to register so much as a losing bonus point so far, the maximum number of points available to Glasgow is 20.

Reaching the 19-point mark – and only two sides have reached that total out of the 18 best runners-up – would require them not only to win all four remaining matches, but also to run in four tries away to either Ulster or Castres, as well as in both remaining home matches against the French side and Northampton.

Where Kellock manfully said there could be no excuses for Glasgow's failure in these opening two matches, such are the improved resources now available to them, his coach seemed to imply in his post-match comments that injuries and weather had contributed. Those factors might have been taken into account in the past, but on the back of last season's successes expectations of the Scottish sides were very different this season.

The timing of this combined failure could not have been worse for those negotiating on behalf of Scottish and Celtic rugby as the English and French press for changes to the structure of European competition that are now all the more inevitable.