Is you were looking for an idiot's form guide to this afternoon's Scotland - Italy match at BT Murrayfield, then a glance at the Guinness PRO12 table the other day would probably have served your purpose quite nicely.

At the top you would have found Glasgow, who provide 12 players to the Scotland match squad today; Zebre, with 10 representatives in the Italian squad, were cemented to the floor.

Fortunately, idiots have never done too well in the business of Six Nations predictions. Since Italy's entry into the expanded competition at the start of the millennium, there has rarely been a moment when common sense has said they should be favoured to beat Scotland, yet they have pulled off that little trick six times over the course of 15 years. Had Duncan Weir not had the presence of mind and the composure to nail his last-minute dropped goal in the Stadio Olimpico last year, their victory count would now stand at seven.

Along the way, they have embarrassed Scotland with, galling regularity. The mind goes back to 2000, that astonishing first Championship match in the Stafio Flaminio, when Diego Dominguez kicked everything from everywhere and Kenny Logan gave the impression that he would struggle to locate the proverbial cow's backside with a banjo. And then there was 2007, when Italy put three tries on the board in less time than it had taken them to sing their anthem.

That second match, which Italy won 37-17, still represents Italy's only victory away from home in the tournament. In fact, the Scots have done more than any other side to welcome Italy into the Six Nations family, their basement battles now so well established that the annual fixture is now routinely described as the wooden spoon decider before the tournament even gets underway.

If Scotland have a different billing in mind then they will have to start turning perceived potential into actual results. And fast. In their outings to date in this year's championship they have won plaudits for their valour, they have won praise for their obduracy in defence and they have won admirers for their ambition in attack. The one thing they have not won, however, is a game.

Ten years ago, former Soctland coach Matt Williams was derided for his claim that Scotland's defensive strategy was sound because it was "delivering players to the tackle area." All the indications so far have been that Vern Cotter is a far better operator, mercifully reluctant to lapse into the sort of self-serving mumbo-jumbo of the Williams era, but there was a disturbing echo from the past the other day when he was asked about Scotland's failure to turn scoring chances into tries.

"What is important is that a lot of opportunities are being created," Cotter replied. You couldn't argue with his general point, but if you were feeling mischievous you could translate his words as: "delivering players to the scoring area." With respect to Cotter, he went on to explain that finishing is a skill that is evolved, that composure is something that has to be developed. But with respect to the intelligence of every rugby fan in Scotland, it is also true that sides can take backward steps as well.

In February 2013, Scotland ripped Italy to shreds at Murrayfield, scoring four tries as they won 34-10. The talk then was we had a backline for the ages, the best since the title-winning side of 1999. Today, only two of those backs, full-back Stuart Hogg and scrum-half Greig Laidlaw, will play in the positions they occupied that day.

In short, Scotland's progress stalled. Little more than a year later, they were dragging themselves off the Millennium Stadium pitch after being humiliated 51-3 by Wales. If they do not win today, you would fear for players like Mark Bennett, Alex Dunbar and Tommy Seymour. As things stand, they are skilful, upbeat individuals, well used to winning in their Glasgow Warriors shirts, but another loss with Scotland could entrench the expectation of Test defeat in their psyches.

Equally, a win would offer more of a boost that it might have done in previous years. Scotland have taken a battering on the injury front, and any side on earth would feel the loss of players of the calibre of Sean Maitland, Richie Gray, Lions both in 2013. They have also had to cope not just with the suspension handed down to Finn Russell, but the fact that the sloth-like pace of the

Six Nations discipline process meant that his absence was not confirmed until Wednesday evening. Despite all that, there has been an air of confidence about the squad. They certainly do not feel they are on the ropes.

And nor should they. Against England, Italy showed glimpses of alacrity and opportunism as they collected three tries, but they also showed their opponents the direct route to a comfortable win as they conceded six as well. Since when, they have lost the mighty (if not quite as mighty as he used to be) prop Martin Castrogiovanni and the elegant centre Andrea Masi. Luca Morisi showed a cutting edge with two tries at Twickenham, but Italy's rugby history is littered with players who produced brilliant cameos and then vanished.

The bookmakers suggest a Scotland win by a margin of 15 points. If personal enrichment is a higher priority than patriotism, you might like to take them on. Scotland flopped over the line in Rome last year and after the experiences of the past few weeks they will be happy to flop over it again today.

And yet, unquestionably, they have the means to do it with a bit of dash as well. Italy will fear the Dunbar/Bennett partnership in the middle, and they will have a holy terror of Hogg, who has out in some lacerating bursts in his last two appearances. Man-for-man, Scotland look better in all but a couple of positions. Today, they should make that tell.