I'd like to put it down to my gift of prophecy, but in truth it was simply a sympathy vote.

In the press-box sweep ahead of Glasgow's clash with Toulouse in the Stade Ernest Wallon in January 2009, not one of the 40-or-so entries had predicted a win for the Scots, so I was really just feeling sorry for them when I suggested that they would come out on top. Not that I owned up to that outlook two hours later as I pocketed my winnings.

Duly enriched, the irony was that I actually gained more than the Warriors did from their 33-26 victory over the four-times Heineken Cup champions. In truth, Glasgow were dead in the water by the time they arrived in Toulouse that day, four straight defeats having already scuppered their chances of reaching the knockout stages. The result reverberated around Europe, arguably the greatest shock in the tournament's history, but while Glasgow enjoyed the kudos they got nothing of any substance.

But this time it is different. Gregor Townsend's side return to the ground this afternoon with a 100% record from their two Champions Cup outings. Toulouse also have two wins, but Glasgow hold top spot in Pool 4 on the strength of the bonus point they collected as they hammered Bath 37-10 at Scotstoun seven weeks ago. They then backed that up with another, much grittier win, in Montpellier the following weekend. Now, they have much more than pride to play for.

Of the side that played Toulouse in 2009, only Al Kellock and Dougie Hall are still on the Warriors' books - and neither has been picked for today's game. Yet according to Rob Harley, who was still learning his craft as an 18-year-old at West of Scotland back then, the result still resonates at the club. The personnel may have changed, but it is part of their inheritance.

"I didn't manage to see the game," Harley recalled, "but I remember hearing the result and about how well they'd played, and the excitement there was about Glasgow taking on one of Europe's giants over there and winning.

"I was in the academy by that stage and doing a bit of training with Glasgow. So I was starting to get to know some of the guys and it just made you more excited about developing and improving, and pushing to become a full part of that squad."

Harley stepped up when Kelly Brown moved on to Saracens the following year. However, it is probably only in the past month that he has really established himself as a forward of the first order, arguably the most consistently effective player in Scotland's three autumn internationals. There is, moreover, a sense of self-assurance about him now, where once there was wide-eyed innocence. That belief could be a motif for the confidence of the entire Glasgow side now.

It has grown over the past 14 months. And, bizarrely, it had its beginnings in those 40 minutes of rugby torture the Warriors suffered in the first half of their Heineken Cup clash with Toulon in the Stade Felix Mayol last year, when they shipped 34 points. What happened next was an astonishing turnaround, for although Glasgow still lost, 51-28, their four-try rampage after the break convinced them they had every right to operate at that level.

Harley said: "I didn't play against Toulon last year and that game hasn't actually been mentioned this week but there was a lot of talk when the squad came back from Toulon. The feeling was that we got really shell-shocked at the start of the game, and let the occasion get to us.

"Yet when we addressed that at half time, we ended up with a try bonus point because we settled down in the second half, played our own game and played some great attacking rugby. So guys came back and said that the message was pretty clear: 'don't sit off and wait and see what they've got, let's get out there and take our game to them'.

"And, to be fair, that's been our approach this season in the league and Europe. Against Montpellier we spoke about that, and that has been the big focus for this week as well. It's about not being over-awed by the occasion, but stepping up physically and making them think about the challenges we pose by setting our stall out early on."

Toulouse have not been European champions since 2010. Their domestic form this season has been ropey, as they have won just six of their 12 Top 14 games. But those patterns say as much about the rise of other clubs as any decline of Toulouse. Where once they - and their budgets - were unassailable, they now have serious rivals in the shape of other big-money projects at Toulon, Clermont Auvergne and Racing Metro.

And yet, as Townsend pointed out last week, Toulouse are probably still more Europe-focused than any other French club. Success across borders is part of their culture, a tradition to be preserved and prolonged. And if they were perhaps guilty of failing to take Glasgow seriously five years ago, there is no danger of that happening now. Having rested a number of players last weekend - when they lost at home to Grenoble - coach Guy Noves has sent for the cavalry for today's game, bringing Gael Fickou, Maxime Medard, Census Johnston, Yoann Maestri, Yannick Nyanga and Imanol Harinordoquy back into the side.

A mighty challenge for Glasgow, then. Realistically, they would probably be happy to split the points from today's game and the return fixture at Scotstoun on Saturday - an outcome that would ramp up the probability of both sides reaching the Champions Cup quarter-finals -but they also know they have to aim high.

"We now have the experience of getting to the semis in the RaboDirect, and the final of what is now the Guinness Pro12. We all get confidence from knowing that we are a team of the calibre to go out and win these games if we're playing well.

"On the other side of that, we've had the disappointment of not getting over the final hurdle and winning a trophy. That's been a big thing for us in terms of motivation. So this season it's been about saying we've been good, but let's push on and go that step further."