Gregor Townsend must like his wounds well-salted.

Sitting down to talk, the first thing he does is flip open his laptop lid, click a few keys and turn the screen round to make it more visible. It is showing a scene from last Sunday's Wales v Scotland game at the Millennium Stadium when, late in the first half, the Scots are pressing hard, camped just a few inches short of the Welsh line.

And then Allan Jacobsen knocks on? That's what you probably remember, what the BBC pictures suggested, and what French referee Romain Poite decided at the time, but the analysis footage now reveals something else. There, clear as day, it shows Wales prop Gethin Jenkins diving across the ruck and interfering with the ball a moment before Jacobsen tries to make his move.

It should have been a penalty, even a penalty try, for Scotland. Given the circumstances, Jenkins, who would be sent to the sin-bin later in the game, should have been yellow-carded there and then. And given the horrors Scotland would subsequently suffer when their own numbers were reduced, who knows how the game might then have turned out.

As he reflects on such moments, Townsend must feel like nipping home and kicking his cat up the stairs. But he doesn't. The Feline Defence League can rest easy in their beds.

"I don't have a cat," he smiles.

Add up all the lucky breaks Scotland have had recently, divide the total by two, and if you come up with a number greater than 0.5 then you must have miscounted. And yet, there must also be something in the rickety old line about sides making their own luck. Have they lost their last four matches – games they could, and possibly should, have won on the balance of play – because somebody up there doesn't like them, or because there is something fundamentally wrong with their approach?

Or, to put it more bluntly, Townsend's way of doing things? To be Scotland's attack coach right now is to have the sort of prestige enjoyed by Craig Whyte's financial adviser or Joey Barton's anger management counsellor. And yet, it is also inescapable that Scotland's shortcomings in the finishing department have only become obvious because so much of what they do in other areas of attack has gone astonishingly well, far better than in many recent campaigns. Remember, you can only screw things up near the try-line if you have got yourself into the position in the first place.

So in his cat-free home in the quiet Borders village of St Boswells, how does he resolve that conundrum? Scotland appear to have evolved the ability to lacerate opponents all over the pitch, but then shoot themselves in the foot in the critical areas. Does he feel quietly proud of the first part of the equation, or quietly desperate about the fact the sum still doesn't quite add up?

Tricky one. "You want victories," he says firmly. "If the attack brings tries then that's fine, but if it brings penalties and you win by a point then that's fine too. The important thing is to get those wins.

"Finishing is a part of our attack, just like creating opportunities. If you don't create you won't finish, and I've been really pleased by the work we've done in terms of creating chances. The line breaks against England were like nothing we had seen from Scotland before. That was pleasing; it showed the effort that went in throughout the match."

Yet while butchering a couple of chances is one thing, and a forgivable thing in the eyes of most level-headed supporters, is there something more insidious going on when butchery becomes almost the norm, when we are counting the carcasses of opportunities lost at the end of every game?

Townsend takes the point, but he sees progress as well. "I see each game getting better and better," he says. "We've seen that from game one [against England] to game two [against Wales]. The more we knock on the door, the more likely it is that the door will be banged down."

But what if the door stays shut? There was a powerful impression in the England match that a number of Scotland players lacked composure when it really mattered. If they keep knocking on the door, or even keep banging their heads against it, is it not just as likely that their frustrations could develop into a vicious and counter-productive downward spiral?

"I think it's starting," Townsend counters. "We saw from the try by Greig Laidlaw at the weekend, and from Stuart Hogg's try, that we can finish off. I was also very proud of the character the players showed, to come back after going down to 13 men early in the second half."

The next three games, starting with France at Murrayfield a week today, will be critical. Andy Robinson has admitted that the contract of defence coach Graham Steadman will not be renewed at the end of this season, and he has been guarded in his comments about Townsend's future.

Equally, it would do Robinson's own image no good if he were seen to be shifting the blame on to others. Four years ago, former Scotland coach Frank Hadden was criticised for getting rid of George Graham and Alan Tait, seemingly forgetting that the buck always stops with the head man, not his deputies.

The picture is clouded by the fact Scott Johnson, the former Australia attack coach, Wales skills coach and Ospreys director of rugby, is joining the Scotland backroom team at the end of this season. In truth, Johnson's exact role is yet to be pinned down, but while Townsend concedes that some realignment will take place he is also convinced he will be part of Scotland's future for the foreseeable future.

"I've been in discussions for a number of weeks with the Union," he says. "They are positive discussions about extending my contract.

"Part of it is to see what happens post Six Nations. With Scott Johnson coming in there will obviously be changes, and there is still the question of Andy having an involvement with the Lions next year, which could mean taking nine months out. There's a lot that's still to be decided."