Peter Wright had - and still has - a refreshing gift for plain-speaking that meant his time on the SRU payroll was always likely to be brief, and the former prop's contempt for obfuscatory mumbo-jumbo was never better illustrated that by his reflections on Scotland's match against the Ivory Coast at the 1995 World Cup in South Africa.

Speaking a couple of years after the game, Wright remembered how the Scotland coaches, wary of complacency ahead of their team's first match of the tournament, hammered home the message that their opponents had to be respected. As they did so, Wright listened dutifully, but while all the while he was thinking: "Why should we respect them? The Ivory Coast are crap."

His private assessment would be borne out by the 89-0 hammering the Scots dished out on the same day Gavin Hastings set an individual Scottish record by scoring 44 points on his own. The men of the Ivory Coast had no lack of courage, as would be tragically proven later in the tournament when winger Max Brito broke his neck and was left paralysed, but they were wanting in every other regard. All in all, Wright's opinion was pretty close to the truth.

But his view does beg some questions. The gap between Scotland and Japan is not remotely the chasm that existed between them and the Ivory Coast 18 years ago, but it is still a decent margin. The Scots hold ninth place in the world rankings at the moment, while Japan are sixth slots further back, squeezed into 15th between Canada and Georgia. Given Scotland's home advantage at Murrayfield today, anything less than victory would be a major shock.

All week through the build-up, the Scottish players and coaches have praised Japan to the rafters. They have talked of their mobility, their set-piece, their summer victory over Wales and their respectable performance against the All Blacks a week ago. To say anything else in public would be crass on many levels, but you rather hope there has been more of a swagger of self-belief in their conversations among themselves.

In short, the Scots should expect to win against Japan. If they cannot deliver that then the nematode worms that have lately infested the Murrayfield pitch will have a better chance of being capped against South Africa next weekend than some of the players on duty today. Which is not to be complacent or arrogant or disrespectful, simply to say that an excess of humility can all too easily translate into an excess of points for the opposition.

You sense that Scott Johnson knows this. The Scotland coach could hardly have been more conservative in his selection had he put David Cameron and Theresa May on the bench as well. Having scattered new caps around like confetti on Scotland's summer tour to South Africa, when 10 players got their first taste of Test rugby, Johnson pulled up the drawbridge ahead of choosing a side without a single newcomer in it.

Granted, that summer splurge meant there were precious few players left to cap, but the signal is still that Johnson wants a solid performance and a solid result, with precious little left to chance. An afternoon without surprises would suit him down to the ground. The least experienced player in the squad is Glasgow hooker Pat MacArthur, whose debut against Samoa last June lasted just 12 minutes before being curtailed by a knee injury.

There is also, of course, the spectre of Pittodrie over today's game. Scotland rugby teams have endured a few humiliating afternoons in their time, but none quite so unremittingly cringe worthy as the one they suffered at the hands of Tonga in the Aberdeen ground last November when they went down 15-21 to the Pacific islanders. For one afternoon of jaw-dropping ham-fistedness, the Scottish players turned the north-east into the country's calamity corner, a wretched nadir for the game that ended, the following morning, with Andy Robinson announcing his resignation.

"We got some aspects right," said Scotland assistant coach Duncan Hodge. Well, on the basis that they all seemed to be wearing the correct numbers during the game then there is some literal truth in that remark, but it is fiendishly difficult to think of anything else. Maybe the half-time biscuits were laid out just as they liked them.

In fairness to Hodge, his point was that the Scotland players have not been burdened by the memory of that game. In fairness to the Scotland fans, they should be. As much as we should welcome a degree of expectation among the Scotland players today, it should be hoped that they should fear another setback with equal intensity.

The big difference this year is that they have their autumn games in the right order. By the time they met Tonga a year ago, their confidence had been battered by back-to-back losses against New Zealand and South Africa. There were rumours of training ground bust-ups and dressing room discontent. They were, to put it bluntly, in a bad way.

Hodge played down the significance of the order of games. "I don't think it makes any difference," he said. "The preparation [had the sequence been different] would have been the same." As he also admitted, though, his next week's work will be a heck of a lot easier if he is working with a side that has just notched a comfortable win rather than one he has to scrape off the floor.

"Japan are a very mobile team, very fit, and well coached," Hodge suggested. "They obviously like to play a lot with the ball in hand, so defensively it will be a big test for us. Their set piece is great as well, so they have a lot of threats. They are a proper Test nation, there's no doubt about that."

It is also beyond doubt at the moment that attention within the squad is starting to turn towards the 2015 World Cup. They are counting down the games and the months already. But all the calculations and permutations will look so much more attractive if they can start the entire process with a win.