Eh, not quite. Before the Six Nations got under way a month ago, the Mystic Megs of the press box had all agreed on a few things. England's November win against the All Blacks had been a flash in the pan. Scotland were heading for another whitewash. Ireland and France were hot tips for the title. Sam Warburton was a likely leader of the Lions.
And now? Three rounds and nine games later, the picture has changed a little. England are steaming towards Grand Slam glory. Scotland have two wins under their belts. Saturday's Ireland v France clash could yet be a Wooden Spoon decider. Warburton has been warming the Wales bench.
But we have learned some things....
1 KELLY Brown is an even better player than we thought. The Saracens flanker (pictured) was known for his work ethic and selflessness, but it was a kind of damnation with faint praise. When potential Lions tourists were being discussed, his name figured rarely. However, he has shown himself to be a far more skilful operator than anyone suspected. Pressed into emergency service at openside, Brown has been rejuvenated in the role. Scotland coach Scott Johnson exonerated him from blame for the feeble forward performance against England, and Brown put in more mighty shifts against Italy and Ireland. A Lions tour is now in his grasp.
2 ENGLAND look unstoppable. Coach Stuart Lancaster said setbacks would be part of their development, but there haven't been too many of those in their unbeaten campaign. They coasted past Scotland, but it took layers of grit and character to see off Ireland and France. England sides of the recent past would have crumbled in similar circumstances. Jim Telfer once warned that the rest of the world should watch out if England ever got their act together. The canny Lancaster (pictured) seems to be bringing that about, earning a legion of admirers for the way he has changed the culture of the side. The title is almost theirs; a Grand Slam looks likely too.
3 FRENCH coaches are still bonkers. The febrile world of rugby across the Channel has a rich tradition of producing mad-eyed, wild-haired and generally deranged coaches, but the line seemed to have ended when Philippe Saint-Andre (pictured) was appointed after the 2011 World Cup. Saint-Andre was supposed to have acquired Anglo-Saxon sensibilities while coaching Sale and Gloucester. The age of the madman was meant to be over. Not so. Saint-Andre established his crackpot credentials by moving Wesley Fofana, the magnificent centre, out to the wing. Then, against England, he adopted a suicidal substitution policy, removing half-backs Francois Trinh-Duc and Morgan Parra from a game in which they had been the dominant figures. Plus ca change....
4 SCOTT Johnson is not bonkers. Johnson steamed into the Six Nations looking and sounding like Dame Edna Everage's uncouth compatriot Sir Les Patterson, but there has been method in the madness of the wild colonial boy. Johnson's first act was to restore some joie-de-vivre to a Scotland dressing room that had become an increasingly grim place. He then hammered home the message that he wanted Scotland to stop faffing about and concentrate on playing a simple game well. He also had the insight to bring Dean Ryan into the coaching team. Scotland are still a work in progress, but they have made significant strides.
5 ITALY still haven't cracked it. The professional chinstrokers had a field day when the Azzurri beat France 23-18 on the championship's opening weekend. What they failed to notice was France were hopeless, while Italian fly-half Luciano Orquera (pictured) squeezed a lifetime of luck into one game. A week later, Orquera reverted to type and was hopeless against Scotland. Italy looked as if they had spent six days celebrating the France result. They are still too reliant on too few players generally, and too many imports in particular. When they lost the magnificent Sergio Parisse to a discipline ban, those frailties were all too obvious.
6 THERE is no such thing as the luck of the Irish. They opened the tournament with a generally impressive, if sometimes patchy, victory against Wales in Cardiff, when Brian O'Driscoll was back to his brilliant best. But then the wheels came off as the squad was decimated by injuries. Simon Zebo (pictured), scorer of a brilliant try against Wales, was first to go, followed by Jonathan Sexton, Gordon D'Arcy, Mike McCarthy and Chris Henry. They then lost Cian Healy, suspended for a lurid stamping offence against England. Against Scotland, they dominated possession and territory, but nothing else tumbled their way and they lost 12-8.
7 EXPERIENCE counts, but not all the time. Ireland coach Declan Kidney not only awarded Paddy Jackson (pictured) a first cap against Scotland, he also handed him the goal-kicking duties despite the fact he does not carry out the job at Ulster. Bold or reckless? Very much the latter as Jackson's shortcomings in front of the posts proved critical.
But you can overdo experience as well. Against Wales, Italy fielded a front row that might have been auditioning for Last of the Summer Wine. Andrea Lo Cicero, Leonardo Ghiraldini and Martin Castrogiovanni boasted a combined age of 95 and a cap tally of 246. Except they didn't have much to boast about as they were hammered in the scrum by their opponents.
8 OWEN Farrell is not the perfect 10 after all. The golden child of English rugby revealed a rather more suspect side in last weekend's match against France at Twickenham, when his anger management circuit blew a fuse spectacularly. Farrell used cheap shots on French players, mouthed off to the referee and looked close to meltdown at times. England won, but Farrell's petulance will not have escaped the notice of Lions coach Warren Gatland. Gatland probably had Farrell pencilled in as his Test fly-half, but last weekend's performance may have planted a seed of doubt as he is well aware that Australia will exploit any psychological vulnerability they can.
9 COMMENTATING is not a job for amateurs. Andrew Cotter's mellifluous Ayrshire tones belie the work that goes on behind the scenes. Like all good commentators, he makes it look easy because of the hard work he does beforehand. When Cotter took ill after just four minutes of last weekend's Italy v Wales game, the importance of spadework became clear.
The former Wales fly-half Jonathan Davies (pictured) took over on the microphone and did his best, but the difference skills required of a summariser and a commentator quickly became clear. Davies lacked Cotter's ability to recognise players instantly and the understanding to know when and when not to speak. Welsh radio commentator Huw Llewelyn-Davies was drafted in for the second half and something close to normal service was resumed.
10 SCOTLAND still need to settle the fly-half issue. The playmaker berth is the heartbeat of the team, but last weekend's win over Ireland raised more questions than it answered. Starting fly-half Ruaridh Jackson was starved of ball, but his replacement, Duncan Weir (pictured), still seemed to energise the side when he came on. The good news is that both are becoming more rounded players. Weir seems happier in the heavy traffic and is standing closer to the gain line, while Jackson is using his kicking game more judiciously. It is a fascinating match-up, but it would be better for the team as a whole if there was a clear winner.
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