Poll proves a disaster for Blair while the low turnout gives all parties plenty of food for thought

BRITAIN'S traditional antipathy towards Europe returned with a vengeance at last Thursday's elections to the European Parliament. With a turnout of just under 25% across Britain, the message for all the political parties will be difficult to digest.

For Tony Blair this election has proved a disaster. In only two out of the nine English regions did Labour top the poll - London and the North-east. In Scotland and Wales Labour was pressed by the Nationalists to within 2% or less.

Labour was always going to lose seats in this election because of the introduction of the regional list system form of proportional representation. What Labour bosses did not anticipate was the extent to which voters would not use their vote.

The reasons for the low turnout are complex, but they have far- reaching implications. First, it is not simply a British phenomenon. In the rest of Europe turnout was down and even in Germany and France it was below 50%.

In Britain, the fall in turnout is unprecedented for a national election. Politics has a low standing and European politics an even lower one. Only around one in four voters recognise the existence of the European Parliament, fewer understand its workings. Loss of confidence in politics has affected turnout in all elections over the past few years and even last month's historic Scottish Parliament elections could persuade fewer than 60% of us to bother voting.

Those elections have no doubt produced an election fatigue as well. That was certainly the case for the parties. Less high-profile media campaigning, and fewer billboards in the street meant less exposure for the elections and gave the message that the parties themselves consider these elections to be less important than those last month. If that was the case, the politicians can hardly complain when voters don't see the point.

A general lack of awareness of the impact of European decision-making is also to blame. In spite of the increasing number of projects up and down the country being funded by European Union money, there is still a problem with relating that to decisions made in Brussels and Strasbourg.

The problem of turnout must be taken seriously in the aftermath of this election, or the legitimacy of the whole European project will be called into question.

Many in the Labour Party will, at least in part, blame proportional representation for the turnout. There is no doubt the debate about any further moves towards electoral reform will be increasingly polarised. To blame voter apathy on changing the system, however, would be to miss the messages from those who did vote.

The votes for smaller parties outstripped expectations in many areas. In nine out of the 11 electoral regions on mainland Britain the other parties achieved more than 15% of the vote or better. In four, the figure was 20% or better. This is a clear indication that votes for other parties are no longer considered wasted. The UK Independence Party and the Green Party have won national level representation for the first time on the basis of this trend.

The Tories' successes will be greatly welcomed by embattled leader William Hague. His party has recovered some ground and, in Tory strongholds, turnout was generally higher, which counted when votes were added up on a regional level. In Scotland, the capture of two seats seemed unthinkable even up to last Thursday. Its 20% share of the vote in Scotland is above its 1997 General Election level.

For Labour the results make extremely bad reading. It has not done as badly as this in a national election since the devastating General Election defeat of 1983. Even in 1979, just after Mrs Thatcher came to power, Labour did better.

Labour may try to dismiss this as a typical mid-term election, and in some ways that is correct. In spite of the losses, if there were to be a General Election this week Labour would probably win comfortably. What went wrong here was that Tony Blair's movement of the Labour Party towards entry to the single currency was at odds with a hardening of opinion against it in the country. As a consequence, Labour did not really want these elections now and reaped the consequences of making no great play for them.

Nationally Blair may still be popular but Europe has always been a thorn in Labour's side and will continue to be so for the next few years. At best Labour will have increasing difficulty in continuing its Euro enthusiasm, and at worst may well already have lost the argument over the single currency.

In Scotland, the SNP will be happy to be breathing down Labour's neck. The same is true of Plaid Cymru in Wales. With the Tories taking overall honours, Labour's Euro election nightmare has proved to be a triple whammy.

Labour's less than convincing showing will undoubtedly lead to problems for Mr Blair within the party itself. Against the background of the faltering fledgling European single currency, the election did not come at an opportune moment. Aware of this, and the fact that public opinion has hardened recently against a single currency, the Labour Party's campaign failed to address the key European issue of concern to the British electorate.

Its less than enthusiastic endorsement of the European project has perhaps led many to suspect that the Labour Government itself has a great deal of antipathy towards the institutions of the European Union. It is therefore hardly surprising that many potential voters showed that same antipathy by not voting.

Labour's stop-start movement towards a single currency has now come to a crunching halt that may even see divisions emerge again within its own ranks. There are many within the party who are broadly pro-European but are more sceptical of the single currency.

Mr Blair can have no confidence, after these results, of making a winnable case for the single currency in a referendum in the near future. Thursday's poor showing suggests that a referendum is now even more likely to occur after the next General Election rather than before.

He will also have to fight off the opposition within Labour ranks for any wider introduction of proportional representation for other elections. There will be some who will see the stark low turnout as an argument against PR. This argument is too simplistic. After all, 64% did not vote in the 1994 European elections and no-one suggested then that that was because of the first-past-the-post system. Also, compare the 60% turnout in Scotland in last month's Scottish Parliament elections with the 25% last Thursday - both fought under PR.

There is no doubt that the dissenters within Labour will be strengthened on the PR issue and this too may shelve plans for a referendum on PR for Westminster until after the next General Election. Blair is committed to some form of referendum, and the party fought hard for the change for these European elections. This may be a setback for the PR lobby, but it will not halt the debate in its tracks.

q Malcolm Dickson is Lecturer in Politics, University of Strathclyde