TO SAY the last few weeks have been difficult for Labour would be an understatement. With the Scottish exams fiasco to the fore when the fieldwork for our latest System Three poll was under way, Labour could be forgiven for expecting the worst.
Hardly surprising, then, that the SNP, despite being in limbo in the run-up to its crucial leadership contest, has reasserted itself in both ballots of Scottish Parliament voting intentions.
The SNP's regained lead would not be enough to stop Labour from being the single largest party. Yet the SNP would be projected to have only three seats fewer than Labour. This would cut any coalition majority Labour could enjoy with the Liberal Democrats to the absolute minimum of one.
The SNP has, of course, capitalised on Labour's problems over the problems at the Scottish Qualifications Agency. The only crumb of comfort for Labour is that the crisis has blown up while the Scottish Parliament has been in recess.
With MSPs due to return to the Mound today, the pressure on the Executive and Education Minister Sam Galbraith is likely to continue unabated. Public confidence provides a large element of what a modern political party needs in order to govern successfully. The crisis over the SQA's handling of this year's exam results may have a longer knock-on effect on the Executive's standing and, in particular, that of the Labour Party.
The results of The Herald's poll into public opinion on trust in the accuracy of the results, published on Saturday, show that Labour has a deep problem.
With only 24% of Labour's Scottish supporters expressing trust in the results, Mr Galbraith has had little more success in convincing them over his handling of the crisis than SNP supporters.
The crisis of trust is cross-party and pan-Scotland. It is also in a policy area for which devolution was designed to meet the needs of Scottish distinctiveness. In many respects, success or failure in Scottish education is a benchmark for success or failure for devolution itself.
Heads, of course, have rolled at the SQA itself, yet despite Government agencies enjoying relative autonomy, from the voters' point of view accountability ultimately rests with elected politicians.
First Minister Donald Dewar urgently needs to put a lid on this whole affair for the sake of his party's credibility. The SNP's lead this month is one which has now been evident in four out of the last six months.
While the Scottish Parliament's term still has a long way to go, loss of trust in a major policy area could lead to longer-term decline in support for the Executive. Mr Galbraith may ultimately have to be sacrificed in order to prevent that happening.
Prime Minister Tony Blair was inevitably drawn into the exams affair during his visit to Scotland and his backing for Mr Galbraith, while not surprising, may backfire on him, given the public mood here in Scotland.
The SNP will now hope that its party conference and leadership contest will both run smoothly and not deflect attention from Labour's troubles.
The pressure for the SNP to be seen as having a united front, and providing a united opposition to Labour, has never been greater.
q Malcolm Dickson is a lecturer in politics at
Strathclyde University
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