WITH Tony Blair in Scotland for the third time since November, Labour is clearly trying to show that its London leadership is just as concerned about developments north of the Border as those at Labour's Scottish headquarters.
The problem Labour faces is how to juggle being a British party on one hand and, on the other, argue that it is also the party of Scotland.
So far, the SNP's claim to be the party of Scotland has been based on excellent performances in opinion poll voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament. Now, the latest System Three poll for The Herald indicates that it is furthering that claim in local government too.
With the SNP forecast to poll 36% in the local elections on May 6, and Labour on 39%, Alex Salmond's party is achieving a swing of around 7.5% since the first elections to the new unitary authorities back in 1995. For Labour, the news is not good. Taking into account the likely regional variations, Labour could stand to lose between 100 to 140 council seats.
In Aberdeen, a showing similar to the SNP's in the North-east Scotland European by-election last November might rob Labour of overall control.
East Ayrshire and West Lothian may change hands directly from Labour to the SNP, as might West Dunbartonshire and, possibly, Renfrewshire. The SNP's performance might also mean that, in Inverclyde, Stirling, Falkirk, and Clackmannan, Labour might find itself losing overall control.
The SNP is also putting the Liberal Democrats under pressure. In Aberdeenshire, the SNP could hope to be in power with the Independents. A similar situation could arise through a good SNP performance in Dumfries and Galloway, where it has already taken a Westminster seat.
Labour's drop in performance since 1995 may also see the Tories regaining a foothold in Scottish local government in East Renfrewshire. Here, a possible loss of even just two seats may be enough for the Conservatives to gain a share of power.
Overall, this would mean Labour's total of 20 councils with overall control could be reduced to 10: probably North Ayrshire, South Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, Dundee, Edinburgh, Fife, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, and East Lothian.
In the other councils where Independents are strong - Argyll and Bute, Highlands, and the Borders - the picture is more difficult to project from opinion polls, but there is no reason to believe that the Independent force in local government will not hold on to what it has.
For the SNP, May 6 could result in its biggest ever share of power in local government. It is likely to retain power in Angus, Moray, and Perth and Kinross. In addition, it may take overall control or a share in power in West Lothian, West Dunbartonshire, East Ayrshire, Aberdeenshire, Clackmannan, Dumfries and Galloway, and Renfrewshire. This would give the SNP some degree of power in 10 out of the 29 councils.
Could it be that a Labour-led Scottish Parliament may have trouble with a potentially large SNP voice in local government as well as in Holyrood?
Malcolm Dickson is a lecturer in politics at Strathclyde University
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