While Labour may breathe a sigh of relief at the latest Herald/System Three poll, Malcolm Dickson thinks the party should also pay heed to some underlying trends which may give it cause for concern

LABOUR in Scotland will have breathed a collective sight of relief yesterday when the latest System Three poll for The Herald showed an increase in its support accompanied by a decrease in the SNP's ratings. Such a result comes on the back of a run of bad poll results and bad news about the economy. High profile job losses and the recent CBI Scotland survey of business optimism, which was as bad as any since 1982, have made life difficult for the governing party to put across a message that it is looking after Scotland's interest.

It is, at least in part, the idea of the Scottish interest that accounts for the remarkable SNP rise in recent months in voting intentions for a Scottish Parliament. Yet, in British terms Labour is still performing well. This month its increase to 48% of committed voters in voting preference for Westminster takes it back close to the 50% level it was enjoying this time last year and in the aftermath of last September's devolution referendum. Perhaps this may be explained by the ''there is no alternative'' idea.

After all, in British terms the only governing alternative to Labour is the Conservatives and while the Tories remain a spent force, with a largely ineffective leadership, Labour can be seen to be the majority choice. Clearly things change when the new Scottish Parliament context is raised. In fact here, the news behind Labour's rise this month is a little bit less rosy.

When attention turns to voting intentions for a Scottish Parliament, Labour has a significant problem. While some switching to other parties is inevitable as voters become less attached to single parties and more instrumental in the way they act at the ballot box, for Labour it is the direction of the switching that gives most concern.

Of those who say that they would vote Labour in a General Election, 75% go on to give the same party their backing in System Three's single question on voting intentions for a Scottish Parliament. Thus 25% of its support leaks to other parties, but most ominously for Donald Dewar is that 23% switch to the SNP.

Interestingly despite Labour's increase in support in the Westminster and single Holyrood questions, the proportionate leakage in support to the SNP has been exactly the same as last month. The implication of this is that, despite an increase in vote share, the actual number of voters in our poll who switched to the SNP in these two questions has actually increased.

Since last month, System Three has now moved to asking its respondents how they would vote in each of the two ballots that voters will have next May. As a result we can also measure the extent of switching between choice of party in the first ballot, for the constituency seats, and the second ballot, for the additional members.

Here the news is bad for Labour again. Of those who choose Labour in the first ballot, only 67% stay loyal for the second ballot. In other words a full third of Labour support disappears. Of course it gets some of this back from voters who switch from other parties to Labour. In fact 17% each of Liberal Democrat support and SNP support switches to Labour. The largest shift in voters' choices is from Labour to the SNP. Last month 29% of Labour first ballot choices ended up with the SNP on the second ballot. This month it is still a worryingly high 23%.

All of this means that there is a net flow of support from Labour to the SNP. There is also a potential ticking timebomb for all the parties in another of System Three's findings. Last month respondents were asked whether they were aware that next May's elections to a Scottish Parliament would be on the basis of two separate ballot papers. Only a small minority of 22% realised that that was the case. This month that has risen to 25%.

The make-up of this aware group makes interesting reading. Of Labour voters, 26% are aware of the two ballots. Similar figures of 24% are recorded for Tory and SNP supporters. The party that stands out here is the Liberal Democrats, where 39% of its support is aware of the two ballots. Of course, with its history of encouraging tactical voting, its support for electoral reform and the social composition of its support, this is not unexpected.

In the System Three survey, respondents giving answers to this question are automatically alerted to the two ballot system by asking them if they are aware of it. This occurs immediately before being asked about voting intentions to a Scottish Parliament in the two ballot questions. This gives little time for those respondents who were unaware of the two-ballot system to consider how to use their votes.

As next May draws closer the ticking timebomb may be under any, or all of the political parties. With such widespread lack of understanding of what is expected of voters next May, the final level of tactical use of votes is as yet not calculable. However, with the extent of switching already proving to be of significance, then as voters become more aware of the electoral system, so, too, might the level of tactical shifts in support.

The development of the Scottish context of politics thrown up by the creation of a Scottish Parliament is a challenge to all concerned with Scotland's political future. This month's poll also includes a clear message that a Scottish Parliament must be just that - for all of Scotland. Despite trailing the SNP, on a projection based on the national swing in votes, Labour comes out as the single largest party.

Yet it does so on the basis of only 24% of the vote in the Highlands and Islands compared with 40% nationally (on first ballot support). The internal diversity of Scotland makes regions such as the Highlands vulnerable in an electoral system that contains a large residual element of first past the post. The success or failure of the Scottish Parliament may lie with the extent that it can claim to be the legitimate voice for all Scots. The challenge is there for all the parties and any new ones that wish to stand next May.

*Malcolm Dickson is a Lecturer in Politics at the University of Strathclyde.