If you have a ticket for today's French Open men's singles final and have been listening to former players and pundits you might be tempted not to bother showing up.

The bookmakers believe that as long as Rafa Nadal can stand he is certain to beat David Ferrer and be crowned champion for a record eighth time.

Nadal may have pulled out of this week's Wimbledon warm-up event at Halle, Germany, citing fatigue, but he knows there will be no sleeping on the job this afternoon. Yesterday, he swatted away any suggestion that by beating Novak Djokovic in another epic battle in the semi-finals meant he had already done enough for the title.

"I don't feel I am the favourite," he said, keeping a straight face. "I feel that I am a finalist. I arrived at the final playing well. I improved a little bit in every match during the tournament.

"That's important, to arrive at the final with the right feelings. But Ferrer didn't lose a set during the whole tournament so he's a player that brings you to the limit. If you are not playing perfectly against him you will be in big, big trouble."

It is one of the bizarre quirks of the ranking system that whatever happens today at Roland Garros, world No 5 Ferrer will overtake No 4 Nadal in the rankings. That is because Nadal cannot gain points on his victory last year while his fellow Spaniard only reached the semi-finals in 2012.

After being out for seven months because of left knee trouble, Nadal has won six of the eight tournaments he has played since returning in February. His defeat of Djokovic, after yet another outstanding battle against the man who is his closest foe these days, took him into his ninth straight final in 2013. His uncle and coach Toni Nadal described the fact his charge is appearing on Court Philippe Chatrier today as "a miracle".

"When we had so many problems, in January, February, we were just happy we could play tournaments, to go on the circuit and be one of the players," an emotional Toni said. "But after the win in Acapulco, everything changed. When he won against Ferrer there, he thought, I think, that he could play against the best players in the world again.

"He beat Ferrer, easily, 6-2, 6-0, and this match was very important, because until that moment we didn't know if we would go to Indian Wells, but when he beat Nicolas Almagro and then Ferrer, well that everything changed."

Ominously for Ferrer, who has won just four of their 23 meetings and hasn't beaten his opponent on clay since 2004, Nadal found his best tennis when he needed it in the semi-final.

"During the first week my level wasn't all that good, but I managed to qualify for the second week," Nadal said. "I had to play much tougher opponents and my level stepped up.

"So it means that mentally I'm ready to take up challenges, to find solutions. I'm strong enough in my head to fight and to react to any situation. It's true that I'm coming back. I reached the final of a Grand Slam. That's something I would have never dreamed of a few months ago so I'm delighted."

While Nadal struggled in his opening two matches, Ferrer's road to his first Grand Slam final was smooth. He has lost his past five semi-finals before making the breakthrough by defeating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-1, 7-6, 6-2.

Ferrer, 31, may be a huge outsider to prevail today, but Nadal knows better than to underestimate him. "Anyone who does not respect David as one of the greatest players in the world – and not for one year, for a long time – is someone who doesn't know anything about tennis," he said. Ferrer insists he will not deserve to be called a truly great player until he wins a major. But with Nadal so strong, and on his best surface, getting over the line is going to be incredibly difficult.

"It is very difficult to beat Rafael on all surfaces, but on clay courts it is more difficult," Ferrer said. "As it's my first Grand Slam final I think I will be a little bit nervous. I will need to play very aggressive all through the match, and to produce my best tennis."

It sounds simple, but it would still be a huge shock if Nadal, the man who is regarded as the best player ever on this surface, is not biting the Coupe des Mousquetaires in celebration at the end of the match.