Andy Murray may have a long way to go to fulfil his dream of becoming world No 1 but when he arrives in the Californian desert today, he knows that over the next month he has a great chance to pick off one of the men standing between him and the top and make inroads towards the other.

Having lost his first match in the BNP Paribas Open last year (and the year before, for that matter), should Murray win the title in Indian Wells a fortnight today, he will overtake Roger Federer to become No 2, leaving only Novak Djokovic ahead of him.

Getting closer to Djokovic will probably require a good performance in Miami, where he reached the final last year, strong showings at the three clay-court Masters 1000s and, more than likely, another Grand Slam. No easy task, then.

But the chance to overtake Federer, the man he beat in the semi-finals of the Australian Open in January, should erode any thoughts of a third straight early defeat in Indian Wells, an event in which he had performed well until 2011.

Those two early losses came soon after heart-breaking defeats in Australian Open finals. It could be argued that having lost again in the Melbourne final this year, again to Djokovic, another slump could be on the cards. But Murray's victory at the US Open last September means he sees near misses rather differently now.

By the time he plays his second-round match in Indian Wells next weekend – the top seeds all get byes through round one – it will be almost six weeks since the defeat by Djokovic. In that time, he managed to pay a quick visit home, fulfil a round of press commitments for this summer's Aegon Championships, agree to play in a summer exhibition in aid of cancer research, be nominated for a Laureus Sports award and buy himself a five-star hotel in Scotland.

It is the first time Murray has taken an extended break, through choice, in February but along with the off-court dealings, the 26-year-old felt the extra time on court with coach Ivan Lendl was worth sacrificing potentially big pay-days in Rotterdam and Dubai. Murray and Lendl have been working together in Florida for the past three weeks, hoping the extra training block and time together will pay dividends.

Once in Indian Wells, Lendl will doubtless find time to play plenty of golf but Murray's focus will be on the court and overtaking Federer to equal his career-high ranking, last achieved in August 2009. For the past few years, the stability of the top four – Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Rafael Nadal in various orders – has meant the main talking point when it came to the draw was whose half each was in. But Nadal's seven-month absence from the Tour, which ended last month, saw him slip to No 5 behind David Ferrer. If Nadal does play in Indian Wells – and it remains a 50-50 decision as he nurses his recovering knee – he could play any of the top four in the quarter-finals, making things even more difficult for everyone concerned.

With Ross Hutchins having treatment for Hodgkin's Lymphoma and Jonny Marray recovering from hernia surgery, British interest in the doubles will focus on Scotland's Colin Fleming, who partners Australia's Paul Hanley.

But Britain's women will also be represented by Heather Watson and Laura Robson, each of whom will be looking to push their career-high rankings even further over the next month. At No 39, Watson is four places higher than Robson, who says she has shaken off a chest infection that has bothered her for the past six months.

"Hopefully everything has cleared up," she said. "I've seen a specialist and I've taken yet another course of antibiotics. I'm feeling pretty good and I've practised well the last couple of days. Hopefully [the doctors] got to the bottom of it."