Blair�s Britain isn�t Brown�s yet but, with Cameron and Campbell fading fast, the new PM seems to have little fear of going to the polls. By Westminster Editor James Cusick

When Gordon Brown addresses his first Labour conference as leader tomorrow, those who have helped him compile his carefully chosen words are said to have agreed that they need not spend too much time this week focusing on what David Cameron or Sir Menzies Campbell are up to.

Brown will instead turn his speech into a forecast of what he intends to achieve, backed up by a few heavily spun policy announcements.

In the most recent ICM poll for the Guardian, Labour's share of the vote has now hit 40%, up one point from the previous month. Tory fortunes have fallen back 2% to 32%, with the LibDems up 2% on 20%. More worrying for Cameron and his insistence that a reformed Tory Party can attract a new audience, is the poll figure that says he is now Britain's least popular party leader, less liked than Brown or Campbell. Cameron was the charming asset that the Conservative faithful had been praying for since John Major in 1990, or the young reforming Margaret Thatcher in 1979. But it isn't happening.

Only 37% of all those polled said they were satisfied with the way he was doing his job, with 45% saying they were dissatisfied. Brown's popularity rating is 55% satisfied, and only 23% dissatisfied.

So what happened to David Cameron? What happened to the Tory lead in the dying months of Tony Blair which saw them peak at 40% and offer a hint that even Brown wasn't going to be enough to keep the Tories out?

One current Tory adviser admitted that Cameron and those around him simply misjudged the impact Brown would have. "We should not, however, get over-worried at the miscalculation. I think even those around Brown are quietly surprised at what's happened.

"And the common denominator of both our calculations is Blair - this isn't yet Brown's Britain, it's just not Blair's any more. Eventually this relief that Blair has gone will filter through and new judgements will be made. Though at the moment it's Brown who's taking advantage and not Cameron, it can still change. We know that, and Brown himself knows it too."

What must worry the Tory opposition more than the Brown bounce remaining constant is that on key policy areas where the Tories should be delivering it is Brown who looks better placed.

In last month's ICM polling it was Labour who were expected to deliver rising house prices, higher educational standards, a fairer distribution of income and - despite the recent Tory emphasis on the environment and even their new "green tree" logo - it was Labour who were better trusted on the correct approach to climate change.

Part of Brown's continuing success is wrong-footing Tory analysts on how he is perceived. Conservative strategy, according to one advertising consultant who had worked on Michael Howard's failed campaign, was based on the reality of a year ago when it was estimated that 70% of the UK electorate believed a change of government was necessary. Now only 55% agree with the statement that it is "time for change". Brown, in effect, has delivered the "change" but the issue of the government changing has faded as a priority.

Cameron - who based his appeal on the promise that his reformed Tories were ready to take back their "natural" role as the party of government and now had the policies in hand to be seen as competent and no longer the "nasty party" - has seen his sole selling point undermined by Brown being regarded as new enough.

Labour may still be regarded as the party most likely to worsen the state of the National Health Service but that isn't enough to sway voters who believe Labour under Brown are still less likely to drive up inflation and interest rates. Once again, as Clinton's Democrats knew, it's the economy, stupid.

With no measurable shift from Labour to the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats under Campbell showing little prospect of rising above the point where they might hold the balance of power, Brown's first 100 days point to as good a start as he could have imagined.

Internal polling by the Conservatives, which a year ago looked rosy for Cameron, is now said to be a "folio of dark reading". Earlier optimism that local government returns had pointed to potential successes beyond the confines of national polling have all but evaporated. The loss of control last week of Worcester City Council, where Labour achieved a 17.6% swing, will have done little for Tory Central Office morale. Worcester in 1997 was regarded as one of the markers that helped define Tony Blair's ability to appeal beyond the traditional Labour boundaries. The same optimism is not there for Cameron and there remains a growing question mark about his short-to-medium term ability to escape from the opposition ranks.

Menzies Campbell, even with a decent speech in Brighton last week, still has question marks hanging over his ability to lead a party capable of doing little more than, again, coming behind the Tories.

His elder statesman status leaves the LibDems in a political limbo, and still fighting among themselves about whether they need a Cameron-like makeover.

Prior to their conference, Liberal Democrat polling was still showing a fall in support in southern England, with the Tories hoping to pick up the disaffected. But other polling suggests the Tories haven't escaped from the shires and can expect only to succeed in areas where traditional Conservatism is still surviving - among pensioners, the upper economic classes and home owners.

Is this enough to worry Brown and renewed Labour? Douglas Alexander, the man put in charge of Labour's election strategy, obviously thinks the opposition aren't well enough placed to trouble Brown, even if he announced a general election next week.

The question of when to call that election is uppermost in the prime minister's mind. The once over-cautious Brown is privately said to remain tempted by the prospect of winning his own mandate and gaining the long-term breathing space of not having to call another election till 2012 at the latest.

Such a success would leave the Conservative opposition in abject turmoil and likely end Cameron's reforming spell as leader of the Tories. A fourth consecutive Labour term in office would mean Brown adding to the demise of yet another Tory leader, Cameron going the same way as William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard. Where would that leave a reeling Tory Party?

One party official said he refused to answer such a question because: "Even thinking about it leaves me nauseous. The prospect of starting again, of rebuilding, of pretending we could take such a hit and recover within a few years to challenge Brown, or whoever, four years down the line, well I can't think- I mean - I can't - no-one here can."

Alexander is buoyed by the fact that donations to Labour are up and he is confident that the coffers and organisations are enough to see off Campbell and what he called the Tory leader's "corroding credibility".

Alexander's criticism is said to come direct from an internal Downing Street memo which is likely to influence the summaries offered by senior government ministers when they address their comrades in Bournemouth.

The memo claims the Cameron threat is evaporating, stating: "The Conservatives are as unreformed, unreconstructed, opportunistic and as divided as ever." If it ended with: "And now Blair's gone, we really cannot believe our luck," no-one would be surprised.