The homecoming of Benazir Bhutto to Pakistan yesterday after eight years in self-imposed exile provided a violent illustration of the increased polarisation between the secularists and the Islamists that has taken place in the eight years since President Pervez Musharraf seized power.

The homecoming of Benazir Bhutto to Pakistan yesterday after eight years in self-imposed exile provided a violent illustration of the increased polarisation between the secularists and the Islamists that has taken place in the eight years since President Pervez Musharraf seized power. Although rapturous, the size of the crowd - estimated at 150,000 - fell considerably short of the forecasts by her Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Before boarding her plane in Dubai, Ms Bhutto described Pakistan as being at a crossroads between democracy and dictatorship. That is to put the country's turbulent politics in overly simple terms. Even if Ms Bhutto is successful in securing victory in the parliamentary elections in January, there can be no assumption that the transition to democracy she talks of so eloquently would be a process uninterrupted by opponents ranging from al Qaeda and the Taliban to disenchanted members of the current military government.

To have the Oxford and Harvard-educated Benazir Bhutto, who talks eloquently of a "moderate, modern nation", in power in this country, whose borders merge with al Qaeda strongholds in Afghanistan, is a prize for the US. Her refusal to be intimidated by threats from the Taliban and her claim "to represent a future that has no place in it for ignorance, intolerance and terrorism" makes her a respectable ally. There are choppy waters to negotiate first, as was evidenced immediately by the apparent attempt on her life that left many dead, but overall Ms Bhutto's hand appears to be strengthening. The role of the courts is proving unexpectedly important. The supreme court has yet to ratify Mr Musharraf's election as President, which was boycotted by opposition parties. It is also considering the legality of the amnesty on the corruption charges against Ms Bhutto. She has already served two terms as Prime Minister and the constitution will have to be altered if she is to serve a third; although Mr Musharraf has said he will give up his position as chief of the army by November 15, he is yet to do so.

If, despite these obstacles, a power-sharing deal between Mr Musharraf and Ms Bhutto succeeds, it will have international repercussions. It is seen by the west as likely to widen the support base of both parties and halt the spread of Islamic extremism from the huge stretch of country known as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata). Until these areas can share the benefits of development, however, the jihadists' calls for action are likely to continue.

Mr Musharraf's backing for the US campaign against terrorism has brought him reciprocal US backing. The unlikely partnership between the general and Ms Bhutto has been facilitated by the US and Britain as the best option for stabilising politics in a country armed with nuclear weapons, which might otherwise come under the control of Islamic movement. However, it will only result in long-term stability if it is a genuine step towards democracy. The danger is that it is no more than a democratic sticking plaster.