THE FALL-OUT FROM GLASGOW EAST: The Gordon Brown problem

By Westminster Editor James Cusick

Labour faces a "nasty and damaging mess" between now and the next general election unless Gordon Brown can be persuaded "to put his party first" and resign as prime minister. This is the post-Glasgow East forecast of an experienced and usually loyal government minister. The minister says the coming mess will begin over the summer with junior ministers announcing they are "no longer prepared" to serve in a government led by Brown. The resignations will continue in what another minister called a "drip feed" of damaging exits that will "shred" Labour's remaining credibility as a party which has any right to govern the UK.

"At the moment," the minister said "it looks like senior members of the cabinet are not prepared to move openly against Gordon. That means the real dirty work will be left to junior ministers and others. This sadly is now the most likely option. Do we have a choice? No, the worst option facing this party is to have Gordon Brown lead us into the next general election and certain defeat."

For many inside the government who suspected the anointing of Brown last year was a mistake, the spectacular loss of Glasgow East to the SNP last week was not an issue of last resort but a confirmation of what they knew already. A low turnout was being lined up as the excuse. It didn't happen. And that has divided the ranks of the party in two: those who want to pretend it is "business as usual" and those who are already engaged in trying to find a strategy that will remove Brown from Number 10.

The faction in denial, at least in public, includes the skills secretary, John Denham and the business secretary John Hutton. Their excuse for the loss of Scotland's third safest Labour seat and Britain's 25th safest seat? It is not the prime minister's fault. High global fuel and food prices is the dominant issue and rather than dump Brown the country needs to accept the political reality that he is the best man to take Britain out of this difficulty.

Jack Straw, the justice secretary, finds himself as the unity manager. Yesterday he warned his cabinet colleagues not to dump Brown, but to close ranks and avoid "damaging" political navel gazing. But while Straw was calling for a collective show of unity, moves behind the scenes were said to include pressure being put on Straw and the chief whip, Geoff Hoon, to become Labour's equivalent of the "men in grey suits" who would meet Brown and tell him his leadership is no longer sustainable.

But there is a problem with using Straw and Hoon. Neither man wants to confront Brown. According to one MP close to Brown: "How precisely is this going to happen? Make an appointment, knock on Number 10's door, walk in and say Gordon, things are bad, you should, er, go'? Get real. Gordon Brown will need to be bulldozed out of Number 10, not pushed by minions."

With the junior ranks acutely aware that none of those close to Brown are going to confront him, there is said to be a "search party" out this weekend to test if one of Labour's elder statesmen is prepared to carry the uncomfortable message to Brown. For elder statesman, read Lord Kinnock.

Some ministers are said to have already contacted the former Labour leader urging him to "get it out there" that Brown is no longer leading the party, but dragging it to defeat.

One said: "There is no certainty that Neil Kinnock will want to get involved in this way. In previous crises he has told some of us, This is your problem, your era, you get on with it'."

But whether or not Brown would wish to even see Kinnock to discuss his leadership remains to be seen. What, however, is not up for argument is the impact a damning verdict from Kinnock could have on Brown. One former minister said: "If Kinnock were to say that he's spoken to the party at large and admit Brown may have lost the party, that would be it. No amount of subsequent "keep the rebels quiet" rhetoric would put the genie back in the bottle."

What a public criticism from Kinnock would do is to confirm what many off-the-record reports say: that Glasgow East and the loss of a 13,507 majority in a traditional Labour stronghold, moved the likelihood of Brown being toppled from possible to probable.

Government loyalists have been quick to dismiss such this. Ed Miliband said he believed Labour under Brown could still identify and make policy that would change the electoral horizon. "We have to show that we have the policies to respond to the new challenges people find in their lives - whether its spending more time with their kids, getting the jobs of the future or getting the skills they need to earn more."

For one adviser, Glasgow East has cleared up "any remaining doubt that Gordon Brown can be anything but a loser. He is - and I say this with sadness - a prime minister nobody wants. Our problem as a party is how we deal with this, fix it. Calls for unity are lame, and those making them know it."

Brown, in holiday with his family in Southwold, Suffolk, said almost jokingly that "everyone's ready for a holiday". But he added: "Some people have very important jobs in the summer and have got to work." In his case that means a lot of overtime.

A cabinet reshuffle in September before the party conference in Manchester has already been scheduled. A new economic assistance package, with measures aimed at easing the financial strain of higher food and fuel costs, will also be unveiled. Brown is also expected to make it clear that whatever Labour's financial relationship with the trade unions, tough times will not mean a return to old times.

The latest opinion poll was also doing Brown no favours. The ComRes survey for the Independent puts Labour 22 points behind the Conservatives with 46%, with the Liberal Democrats on 18.

The Glasgow East result if repeated throughout Scotland would leave Labour with just one Scottish seat - and defeats for Brown, the Chancellor, Darling, and the development secretary, Douglas Alexander. If the ComRes is accurate, the general election would see the Tories elected with a 236 landslide majority.

One minister, like the many who are currently asking not to be named said: "Whatever option we look at - Gordon being asked to go, being pushed, or going himself, and whatever the damage a leadership election would inflict on the party - the reality is that the worst option for us all is to march into the next general election with Gordon still the leader of the Labour Party. That is the one option we cannot afford."