The Tenner bet's New Year's resolution is to pick a winner. Let's face it, the end of 2008 was something of a financial disaster, so much so that those with vested interests are not best pleased and, among other things, want my head as compensation. But enough of my private life, there's money to be lost.

The Tenner bet's New Year's resolution is to pick a winner. Let's face it, the end of 2008 was something of a financial disaster, so much so that those with vested interests are not best pleased and, among other things, want my head as compensation. But enough of my private life, there's money to be lost.

Few teams are luckier than Manchester United when it comes to FA Cup draws. A slew of home ties against inferior opponents in recent years, coupled with Fergie's penchant for resting his best players in cup ties, has made United almost unbackable in the FA Cup: the odds don't reflect the risk undertaken given the relative merits of the opposition - witness the 0-0 draw at Burton Albion in 2006 as an example.

This time around, however, United have been paired with Southampton, a team at the wrong end of the Coca-Cola Championship.

There is one overwhelming factor which makes Southampton easy to back against this weekend: they look to play football, something which plays into United's hands given that most of their recent low-scoring matches have been against teams who have looked to pack the midfield.

Furthermore, given their relegation fears, it is unlikely that Jan Poortvliet will be desperate for his side to progress in this competition. United will likely put out an experimental team; Southampton have been fielding kids all season due to financial problems. Some might argue that this will favour Southampton but, in reality, the best they can hope for is a replay at Old Trafford and that's only if United (in whichever guise they appear) fail to play to the best of their ability.

That makes the evens offered on United -1 to beat Poortvliet's side a tempting proposition.

Such is my determination to get that New Year winner, I'm departing from tradition and have decided to limit this week's bet to a double.

For my second team, I'm revisiting a fixture which a fortnight ago killed off all notions of a winning return to football betting. I'm talking about Millwall v Crewe at the New Den (see Tenner bet passim). That game just before Christmas ended in a 0-0 draw but one of the most important rules in betting is to not allow your judgment to be clouded by teams who have let you down in the past. This is folly and often ends with that most lamentable of phrases: I knew that was going to happen'.

I have been guilty of such a crime in the past which is why I'm plumping for Millwall (4/7) to take revenge for that unexpected result a few weeks ago and win this afternoon.

Elsewhere, Carlos Vela makes interest to score any time when Arsenal host Plymouth Argyle at the Emirates this afternoon.

Selections Manchester United -1 (Evs, Stan James), Millwall (8/15, general) Double 2.1/1 Single Carlos Vela to score any time against Plymouth (13/8, Boylesports) Season's profit £37.78