For every failed bet there is a lesson to be learned: no, it is not simply to give up gambling, but to apply said lesson to future selections in order to steer clear of making the same mistake again.

For every failed bet there is a lesson to be learned: no, it is not simply to give up gambling, but to apply said lesson to future selections in order to steer clear of making the same mistake again.

I say this at the end of a week in which I finally started winning again. Of last weekend's selections, four from five teams came up leaving me with a profit of 0.72p - stop sniggering at the back.

I won't insult my students by suggesting that from small acorns grow mighty oaks but what I will say is that any doffing of caps to statistical analysis from now on should surely be superficial.

The reason for such a bold statement comes from the fact that the one team to let last Saturday's bet down was first division leaders Queen of the South, previously unbeaten at home, who lost to bottom-placed Morton, previously without an away win.

I could be forgiven for suggesting that one just can't hope to succeed at this kind of thing with such remarkable reverses in the form book. But that would be to invite self-pity, a very dangerous thing in gambling, and would ignore the simple truth that Queen of the South's record against Morton at Palmerston is thoroughly miserable.

Indeed, of the sides' last four meetings in Dumfries, Morton have won three and drawn one, this despite an atrocious home record of their own against Queen of the South.

What is the lesson learned? Namely, that psychology, leadership and mood are the determinants to winning matches - and that other factors have less importance. That leaves us back where we started a few weeks ago.

The key then is evaluating the psychological impact of previous results against specific opponents and on a more general level those over the course of the season, while not losing sight of managerial abilities and mood inside the camp.

Taking the above into account, my first selection is Leeds United to overcome Huddersfield at Elland Road. When the sides met last year Leeds triumphed by 4-0 and were coming off the back of a run which had seen them overhaul a 15-point penalty for going into administration.

Leeds' excellent early season form could partly be explained by a psychological reaction to that handicap but we are probably now seeing a truer reflection of their abilities without that artificial incentive and things look promising under Gary McAllister.

Elsewhere Dundee United travel to Rugby Park where they won last time they played there. Their previous visit to Kilmarnock had ended in a 2-1 defeat but you may recall on that occasion that the referee Brian Winter turned the game on its head by dismissing Christian Kalvenes with United cruising to three points.

Craig Levein's side look unstoppable at the moment and should solidify their reputation as third best side in Scotland with a win today.

Here endeth the lesson.

Selection Leeds (8/13, general), Dundee United (13/8, general) Double: 3.24/1 Season's profit: -£12.22