Last week, Bilal Abdulla was found guilty of conspiracy to murder and conspiracy to cause explosions. He was the doctor responsible for driving a Jeep loaded with propane canisters into Glasgow International Airport, where it burst into flames. It was the first-ever terrorist attack on Scotland.
The conviction has particular resonance for me because we are similar in age, and we grew up only half an hour away from each other. Clearly, both he and I faced a choice between seeing Islam as setting us against our country, or as setting us up to be a part of it. Equally clearly, we made different choices. However, that is the same choice facing half a million Muslim young people growing up all over Britain, and about half a billion more all over the world.
Bilal Abdulla is one example of a trend we must understand if we are to stand a chance of beating Islamist terror. We often think of terrorist groups as distinct and independent, like companies. When attacks happen, policymakers and pundits ask: which group did it? Where were they based? Who are the ringleaders? How likely is the group to strike again?
But this is a mistake we cannot afford. We must stop thinking of perpetrators as unified companies and start thinking of them as ad-hoc groups of freelancers from the worldwide pool of Islamic radicals. Intelligence services in the US, UK, Holland, Denmark and Sweden all agree that the main threat now comes mainly from freelance cells. "Self-starter" cells initiated the attacks in London in 2005, Madrid in 2004 and Casablanca in 2003. Al-Qaeda has stated that it now conducts 50% of its war through the media to inspire more young radicals. Islamist terrorism has changed, and failure to grasp that change is not just erroneous, it is dangerous.
The implications of this shift from a company model to a freelance model are profound. Unlike companies, freelance radicals can move across borders easily; the survivors can disband and regroup at will, and can be coordinated remotely. Inspiration and know-how can be disseminated, and plans formed, online, between radicals who need not even have met. But the crucial difference is that any given terrorist can be replaced with another. That means that no given terrorist group cannot be conclusively defeated. This calls for a change in how Western governments address terror.
There is only one way to beat Islamist terror in the long term, over decades. That is to reduce the motivation for young people to radicalise in the first place. Governments must redefine success against terrorism. Military objectives achieved and plots foiled are insufficient.
One way to do this is to undermine the intellectual conditions in which radicalisation takes root. We must discredit interpretations of Islam that permit the murder of innocent people. Western governments should draw media attention to authoritative Muslim religious and legal figures abroad who renounce violent jihad. This kind of tactic has been used successfully by Egypt and Saudi Arabia for many years. It is cheap or free. By drawing attention to authentic Muslim, and sometimes ex-jihadi, authorities who renounce violence abroad, governments can make it harder for radical groups to grow.
Bilal Abdulla's path from Glasgow doctor to terrorist shows that undermining the conditions for radicalisation is no less important in Scotland. Until recently, there has been no Scottish Islamic organisation working on a national level. But now, initiatives like the Scottish-Islamic Foundation are filling the gap. It works closely with reputable Islamic scholars to increase the theological resistance of young Muslims to violent jihadist interpretations of Islam. At the same time it gives them the confidence and skills to make a positive contribution to Scottish society. In the long term, the challenge is not to stop radicals striking. It is to stop young Muslims radicalising, and that is what the Scottish-Islamic Foundation does.
We must all start thinking about terrorism long-term. It is freelance now, and it relies on a pool of young radicals more than ever. The key to beating it is minimising the motivation to radicalise.
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Azeem Ibrahim is a Research Fellow at International Security Program, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and Member of the Dean's International Council at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago.
Glasgow-born, he has been described by his peers as a brilliant young scholar, financial wizard and gifted entrepreneur. Azeem was inaugurated onto The Sunday Times Scots' Rich List at the age of just 31, with an estimated fortune of US$106m. In 2007, he became the youngest member of the Bank of Scotland Asian Power 100.
