Desperate to clear his name and return to his native land, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi faces a stark choice.
Desperate to clear his name and return to his native land, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi faces a stark choice.
The man serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted of the Lockerbie bombing had to wait almost four years for the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission (SCCRC) to conclude that his conviction may have been a miscarriage of justice and refer his case for a fresh appeal.
Despite seemingly interminable delays, the appeal is timetabled to begin in April. But with his hopes so close to realisation, he now has to face up to the fact he may not live to see its conclusion.
Given the decision to pursue the appeal - expected to be one of the most complex in Scottish legal history - and face the prospect of dying thousands of miles from home in a Scots prison, or drop the legal proceedings and apply for a transfer to Libya, it is impossible to say what he should or will do, but officials are working behind the scenes to persuade him to opt for the latter option.
In November three judges at the Court of Criminal Appeal turned down his application for interim liberation pending the conclusion of the appeal because he had been diagnosed with advanced stage prostate cancer.
He could apply to Scottish ministers for "compassionate release", but the current guidelines suggest that only those with three months or less to live can be considered.
Since the Holyrood elections of May 2007, the Scottish Government has released two prisoners on such grounds - but both of them had less than three months to live.
There are relatives and campaigners including Dr Jim Swire, who lost his daughter Flora in the tragedy, who desperately want the appeal and the fresh evidence upon which it is based, to be heard in public.
A campaign group established last month by Dr Swire and Father Pat Keegans, who was the priest in Lockerbie at the time, argues that Megrahi should be released on compassionate grounds to allow him to be supported by his family at their home in Newton Mearns while the appeal takes place.
In December, his wife Aisha Megrahi publicly pleaded for his release to allow him to spend his remaining time with her and their five children.
"Please release him so he can spend what few days he has left at home with his family," she said.
But it seems unlikely that ministers would make an exception in the case of the man convicted of the biggest terrorist atrocity on mainland Britain, particularly as it could leave them open to claims from scores of other inmates.
As it stands, his legal team has not applied for release on "compassionate grounds". He is still keen to clear his name through the courts and return to Libya.
The appeal will begin on April 27 but is expected to run until the spring or summer of 2010.
In November the judges revealed "he could have years to live". However, officials are increasingly concerned that he might die in prison before it concludes. As The Herald reveals today, there is growing pressure from civil servants for Megrahi to sign up to a prisoner transfer instead.
In order to apply, he would have to drop the appeal as, for a transfer to be considered, there can be no live proceedings - a move thought to suit several key parties.
The conviction in 2001 was seen as a huge triumph for the Scottish legal establishment and a symbol of changing international relations. However, doubts about Megrahi's guilt have grown ever since.
A successful appeal would prove highly embarrassing, not just for the Scottish judicial system, and it is understood some members of the UK, American, and Libyan security agencies would prefer the case not to be reopened publicly.
Talks to establish a Prisoner Transfer Agreement (PTA) between Libya and the UK began in 2005 but the Foreign and Commonwealth Office has consistently denied that such discussions bear any relevance to Megrahi.
In contrast, Libyan officials have always made clear that from their point of view the discussions are all about finding a way to bring Megrahi home.
Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, was forced to admit that Scottish ministers would have the final say on whether to transfer Megrahi, following claims that Megrahi was a pawn in the recent £450m BP oil deal with Libya.
The agreement signed by Westminster means that any Libyan serving their sentence in the UK, who has no pending appeal, could be returned home. Under the law, those serving sentences in Scottish prisons could be moved only with the permission of Scottish ministers.
Alex Salmond, the First Minister, has made clear that Megrahi would serve his full sentence in Scotland and that he would, "defend the integrity of the Scottish judicial system, and uphold the international agreements that had previously been made".
The ultimate decision on whether to grant the PTA would lie with Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary, and officials have made clear to the Libyans that they are prepared to go back on claims made by Mr Salmond which were "made more in relation to the murky politics of the deal in the desert than Megrahi".
Ultimately it seems an almost impossible decision for one man suffering a terminal illness to make, but this is not and never has been solely about one man, but about the international machinations and political dynamics of several countries - not least the US, Libya and the UK.
Timeline of events
- December 21, 1988
Bombing of PanAm 103 claims 270 lives, including 11 people in Lockerbie.
- November 14, 1991
Britain's largest criminal inquiry and three-year joint investigation with FBI results in indictments for murder against Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi and Al Amin Khalifa Fhimah, the Libyan Arab airlines station manager at Luqa airport, Malta.
- April 5, 1999
After protracted negotiations, Libya hands over the men to Scottish police.
- May 3, 2000
The trial begins of the two Libyans at a specially convened court at Camp Zeist in the Netherlands.
- January 31, 2001
Megrahi is found guilty and sentenced to life in prison, later set at 27 years, while Fhimah is acquitted.
- February 14, 2002
Appeal by Megrahi is rejected by a panel of five Scottish judges sitting at Camp Zeist.
- September 23, 2003
Megrahi's legal team appeals to the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission following concerns it may have been a miscarriage of justice.
- October 12, 2005
The Herald reveals that talks are under way aimed at transferring the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing from Scotland to a prison in Libya or a neighbouring north African country. Westminster denies it.
- June 7, 2007
First Minister Alex Salmond reveals that a deal has been signed with Libya which could see prisoners being transferred, sparking a political outcry about accusations that Scottish ministers had not been consulted on the "deal in the desert" between Tony Blair and Colonel Gaddafi, before the Memorandum of Understanding was signed.
- June 28, 2007
Criminal Cases Review Commission concludes that conviction may have been a miscarriage of justice on six separate grounds.
- April 4, 2008
Mr Salmond clarifies that: "Anybody connected and convicted of the Lockerbie bombing should serve their sentences under Scottish jurisdiction. We will defend the integrity of the Scottish judicial system, and uphold the international agreements that had previously been made."
- November 14, 2008
Megrahi is refused bail despite being diagnosed with terminal cancer and judges agreeing that he is not a flight risk.
