Ethnic violence, rising nationalism, the Iraq war, globalisation and a battle between secularism and Islamism ... welcome to one of the world's most heated elections. By Ros Davidson in Istanbul
LOUDSPEAKERS blare political messages from the tops of vans in a plaza in Kadikoy, in the Asian part of Istanbul. The place is bristling with banners, posters and placards. Dozens of political supporters - many of them young - are handing out leaflets to drum up votes for today's general election, the most heated in recent memory.
Young women are working the crowds for Turkey's ruling pro-Islamist AKP party. Several wear stylish long coats and head scarves, an incendiary symbol in this secularist country. Others, canvassing for the main opposition party, the social-democrat CHP, are in tank tops and miniskirts - it's 34 degrees and stultifying - or dresses and heels.
Nearby a 10-foot-high video screen, for the far right MHP, shows repeated scenes of the funerals of Turkish soldiers killed in the ongoing fight with Kurdish insurgents. The music is ominous, militaristic and the loudest by far. A circle of men, many of them of the age for conscription, watch the video intently.
Above the melee looms a billboard as high as two storeys touting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, moustachioed and solemn. Workers rush by on their way home or sip tea in outdoor cafes. And everywhere -- on the sides of buildings, in the rear windows of cars and on ferries entering the Bosporus -- are scarlet Turkish flags.
The cacophony of Kadikoy, with its youthful vibe, is a microcosm of opinion and of what's at stake in the snap election, which some say could define Turkey for a generation. And with almost two-thirds of the population under 35 years old, no group has more power than young Turks.
History may weigh heavily on their shoulders - the election is a test of whether Turkey can strengthen its fragile democracy and emerge from a post-modern political crisis. Turkey's fault lines are deep, a roiling mix of secularism vs. Islamism against a backdrop of ethnic violence, rising nationalism, the Iraq war and globalisation.
The old secular elite, the "white Turks" of the west, is also contending with the growing power of a new middle class, conservative and religious from central and eastern Anatolia and represented by the AKP.
For weeks now, young Turks have been fighting for votes on the streets, in cafes, on the Internet. In bustling Kadikoy, Seyma Sonmez, a 20-year-old medical student wearing a stylish head scarf and long beige coat, is working the crowd for AKP. The economy, she says, is one reason she supports the party, which has presided over a boom and is pro-EU.
Debt from Turkey's IMF loans - it is the fund's biggest debtor - is a burden on the country, where the average wage is GBP 2,750. The ruling party, she notes, has worked hard to bolster productivity and reduce inflation.
Her view is backed by one of the few surveys to break down political attitudes by age. According to the poll, by the US consultant Williams & Associates, 61% of those under 25 say the economy and employment are most crucial. In another poll, by the newspaper Sabah, most of those aged 18 to 22 cite unemployment and terrorism.
What about Sonmez' clothing? Head scarves are banned in Turkey's public schools and offices, and even the prime minister is schooling his daughters in the US because they cover their heads.
Sonmez regrets that she must remove her "turban" for classes: "It makes me into two different characters. And it makes me very sorry." Her two older sisters did not study at college, because they would not uncover their heads. The proportion of women who wear head scarves is now 64%, down from 74% in 1999. In major cities in western Turkey, it is perhaps two-thirds of that or less. But the issue has been rekindled by the prominent AKP women who cover their heads.
Terrorism is a highly emotive issue. Ankara blames the PKK, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party, for the deaths of more than 30,000 people since 1984, when the group started fighting for an ethnic homeland in southeast Turkey. The response of Sonmez, when asked about the group, is sharp: "They take guns from Europe and the USA!"
Indeed Erdogan, whose party is seen as soft on terrorism, recently asked Washington to explain how US arms get into the hands of the insurgents. It is unclear, he said pointedly, whether the arms fall into the PKK's hands via Iraqis or if the US supplies the PKK directly.
After a rise in violence in the last two months, Turkey has upped troops at the Iraqi border, to perhaps 200,000, far higher than the usual build-up for spring and summer. Army leaders have publicly pressured Ankara to allow a cross-border campaign. And on Wednesday the Iraqi government said Turkish artillery and warplanes had bombarded Kurdish rebel targets inside Iraq.
The jockeying for youth votes is intense. Millions of young Turks are likely to vote today for the first time; it was only in 2003 that the voting age was dropped to from 21 to 18.
The conservative AKP, which previously attracted older voters, is fielding candidates on average 10 years younger than its opponents. As a government, it also pushed to lower the minimum age for a seat in parliament, from 30 to 25. The move was successful, but not in time for today's vote. Scores of youthful pro-CHP groups have also emerged, and they are spearheading email and blogging campaigns.
AKP is predicted to win some 40% of the vote and again govern, perhaps with a reduced majority. Pro-business, it is noted for presiding over economic growth despite a financial crisis in 2001 - during a troubled and sometimes corrupt coalition government -- that caused the Turkish currency to lose half its value.
In recent polls, MHP is at about 12% and CHP has 17%. That's embarrassingly low for the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, father of the Turkish republic. Several pro-Kurdish candidates, standing as independents, may get elected.
But if AKP is victorious, as expected, that may lead to a repeat of the political crisis of late April, when Erdogan nominated Abdullah Gul, his foreign minister and a pious Muslim, as president. Secularists reacted fiercely. And on April 27, the army -which has four coups under its belt -- posted a late-night warning on a website. According to the wording of the "e-coup", if necessary the army would intervene to safeguard secularism.
Not in a decade had it made such a threat. Gul was soon blocked, and Erdogan called an election. Over the next few days three to four million anti-AKP demonstrators poured into the streets, many of them middle-class government workers. A retired army general has since claimed credit for fomenting the protests. And although Erdogan has promised to try to introduce a direct vote for the president, who is currently elected by parliament, the opposition may be as dramatic.
On the other side of Turkey's cultural divide are students Selin Oksuz, 19, and Ozlem Koyotos, 22. CHP supporters, they say they want to protect secularism, freedom for women and the rights of the Kurd and Armenian minorities. Both maintained that young women who wear headscarves have been manipulated by their parents. "For us girls, it's very strange here. The AKP is powerful," said Oksuz, who studies in Switzerland and has a stud in her chin.
They also claimed that the AKP is part-funded by the USA, a common Turkish complaint about any opposing party or candidate because of the unpopularity of the Iraq war. "We don't want a country that's part of the USA, or that's part of Europe," added Koyotos, who said that the EU does not want Turks, only their country.
Especially disturbed by the prospect of Islamism is Melek Ozmus, 19, a sociology student, who had yet to decide how to vote. AKP cronies are increasingly in charge of schools, she claims, and in some cases have introduced prayers. "I don't trust AKP," she says. "I hate them." In fact she dislikes politicians generally, and may vote for a leftist independent.
Since AKP's election, in a landside in 2002, there is basis for secularists' suspicions. The government has opposed the ban on head scarves and backed religious schools. It also unsuccessfully tried to limit alcohol in city centres and impose jail terms on convicted adulterers, policies that were opposed - significantly -- by the current secularist president.
Mehmet Ururttogol, 27, has already voted twice for the nationalists and will do so again. An administrative worker for the German drug giant, Roche, he noted that the MHP has vowed to execute the jailed PKK leader, Abdullah Ocalan, if it got enough votes to form a government, which is highly unlikely. "I think only the MHP will finish this terror. I like them," he says.
As many as half of young male voters will decide on the basis of nationalist feelings, says Taha Ozhan, an analyst with the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a think tank in Ankara. His prediction is high, but he attributes it to Iraq, the Kurdish issue, disillusionment over the EU and because .young voters have no direct experience of the economic turmoil in 1999 to 2001, the AKP's playing card.
Even so, he says more young women than men will vote for AKP, on the basis of bread-and-butter issues and a desire for stability.
Less typical, then, is a 27-year-old Kurd who will vote today for the first time. An economic development consultant, he declined to give his name. He is supporting an independent candidate, a leftist academic, who will be backed by the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party. There are 700 independents standing across Turkey, many of them likely to pull support from the CHP.
Most important, he said, is dialog with the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq. Joining the EU is also an ideal. "It will be hard," he said. "We need a lot of reforms, especially in freedom of the media, but it will be good for us."
Under the notorious Article 301, writers, journalists and others--including Nobel Laureate Orhan Pamuk - have been prosecuted for insulting 'Turkishness.' And in January, the campaigning Turkish-Armenian newspaper editor, Hrant Dink, was shot dead, allegedly by a 17-year-old nationalist.
Not surprisingly, some of the most satirical comment is on the YouTube video website and in Internet chat rooms. In one video, Erdogan is imposed on the Statue of Liberty, implying he is a US puppet. In another, he tells a dead soldier that the army is not a place to rest - a reference to comments he once made about conscription. In a third, he is depicted as a threat to the secular state.
But even if young Turks do not always voice their criticism publicly, they may vote in high numbers. Turn-out for all age groups could be 80% of the 40 million eligible, says the analyst Ozhan. And in the survey in the newspaper Sabah, 79% of those who can vote for the first time have actually registered.












