Advertising spending in the UK will be mired in decline until 2011, figures released today revealed.

Advertising spending in the UK will be mired in decline until 2011, figures released today revealed.

China will also overtake the UK this year as the world's fourth largest advertising market, according to predictions from media firm ZenithOptimedia.

The firm, which is owned by French advertising group Publicis, has downgraded its forecasts from just three months ago after first quarter spending was below its expectations.

It had expected the UK market to decline 8.7% to £11.39 billion this year, but now expects a steeper fall of 10.5% to £11 billion.

The year-on-year slump will continue into 2010 with a fall of 1.4% to £10.87 billion, compared to a previously forecast rise of 2.3% to £11.65 billion, and the market will only return to growth in 2011 with a 2% increase to £11.09 billion.

Radio is expected to see the largest fall this year, of 15%, followed by newspapers and television, which are expected to slide 14.6% and 14% respectively.

ZenithOptimedia said it had cut its forecasts for the UK in light of "continuing economic difficulties".

The UK figures fall below those for Western Europe, which is expected to decline 9.2% this year and grow 0.2% in 2010.

But the US fares worse with a forecast drop of 10.6% this year and 2.7% next year.

Not all regions are predicted to decline however and ZenithOptimedia said of the 79 markets it covers, 25 are still growing.

"Many of these are small, young markets, but they also include heavyweights like China and India," the firm said.

"We forecast China to grow 5.4% this year, overtaking the UK to become the world's fourth-largest ad market, while India grows 7.7% and overtakes Norway, Mexico and the Netherlands to become the 14th largest."

The firm said advertisers had slashed costs as they were "faced with extreme uncertainty" and expected steep drops in revenues.

"In uncertain times advertising is often treated as a discretionary expense and cut early, despite much research that shows companies maintaining their ad expenditure in a recession come out of it stronger than those that do not."

In the UK radio spending is expected to suffer the most and will not return to growth in 2011. But ZenithOptimedia said this is despite radio listening at an all-time-high, with 45.8 million listeners every week.

Even internet advertising spending was expected to fall this year and next, by 1.8% and 1.1% respectively. This compares to growth at its 2004 peak of 137.8%.

But expenditure in the sector is still forecast to almost match newspaper spending - currently the biggest section of the market - by 2011.

Internet spending has been nipping at the heels of others in the market for some time and in 2008 it accounted for 23.1%, compared to 28.4% for newspapers and 26.1% for television.

In its global report ZenithOptimedia predicted internet spending would grow 10.1% this year and reach 15.1% share of the world market by 2011.

"The return to growth in 2010 and 2011 will bring no end to the pain of many big media owners," the firm said.

"New technologies are reducing entry costs, providing a lot of new competition for the established players.

"Television networks are losing viewers to digital channels and video websites; newspaper websites are losing readers to bloggers; radio stations are losing listeners to podcasts; and so on. Competition for consumers' attention, and the ad revenue that comes with it, will only get more intense as the world economy recovers."