Poisoned chalice of Bush�s legacy may be deciding factor in race to White House, regardless of whether John McCain or Rudy Giuliani wins
From Caitriona Palmer in Washington

HE was a reassuring voice at a terrifying time for Americans. With a hole punched in the heart of his city and his countrymen in a state of shock, New York mayor Rudy Giuliani's take-charge attitude in the wake of 9/11 endeared him to voters of all stripes.

Now he's hoping that memory will carry him all the way to the White House in 2008, but first he must win the nomination of his Republican Party. Giuliani's main rival is a senator who also enjoys hero status, John McCain, who still bears the scars from his years as a tortured prisoner of war in Vietnam.

Regardless of their compelling biographies and reputations as politicians of conviction, both men face an uphill battle in winning over the conservatives who dominate the Republican Party - a minority nationwide, but a decisive force in choosing the party's next presidential nominee.

Last week Giuliani came to Washington to make a pitch for conservative hearts and minds at a crucial conference of right-wing power-brokers, invoking the legacy of Ronald Reagan while glossing over his moderate leanings on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage.

"We don't all see eye to eye on everything," Giuliani told the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, but he said he had upheld their core values by cutting taxes, cracking down on crime and taking a tough line on terrorist threats.

He compared the battle against Islamic extremism to Reagan's struggle against communism during the cold war, portraying himself as a clear-eyed warrior who would not retreat from the fight.

"Maybe we made a mistake in calling this the war on terror. This is not our war on them, this is their war on us. This war is over when they stop planning to come here and kill us we need an American president who understands the necessity of being on offense."

Riding high in the polls and prompting enthusiastic receptions at his events, Giuliani's message seems to be working so far, though there is a long race still ahead.

"He had perfect pitch with the country after 9/11, and that was pretty important. Those signature moments in politics are not easily forgotten," said Karlyn Bowman, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

As the former mayor of one of America's more left-of-centre cities, Giuliani has the burden of explaining to the Republican right his previously stated positions in support of abortion rights, gay unions and gun control. He has tried to stake out more conservative ground, promising to appoint conservative-minded judges, but it remains unclear if the Christian right will be willing to accept him as their candidate.

Once the front-runner, McCain, 70, is now trailing Giuliani in early opinion polls, and his reputation as a straight-talking maverick seems to have faded, partly because of his relentlessly hawkish support for the Iraq war.

A veteran navy pilot and graduate of the US Naval Academy, McCain was shot down during the Vietnam war and held as a prisoner of war by Hanoi from 1967 to 1973. He ran a dark-horse campaign against George W Bush in 2000 that almost succeeded until he was battered by a nasty onslaught of personal attacks by Bush supporters.

During his first run in 2000, McCain portrayed himself as a rebel, flouting convention, ridiculing corporate lobbyists and confronting Christian ideologues in the Republican Party. This time, he is treading more carefully, having worked hard to build bridges with some of his conservative critics and served as a loyal soldier for Bush.

At a time when public opinion is turning sharply against the US presence in Iraq and even prominent Republicans are refusing to back the president, McCain is a lone dissenting voice in Congress calling for yet more troops and more sacrifice. It is an unpopular stance that could cost him his presidential ambitions, but it has won him some support from his former right-wing critics.

"McCain in the past few months has looked a little bit older, his campaign seems to have had mixed messages; and it's also possible that the pall that the war in Iraq has cast over everything in American life, and his close association and support for Bush, has contributed to the decline in McCain's support," Bowman said.

Whoever the conservative base anoints, the Republican nominee will have to persuade the wider electorate that he represents a fresh break with the increasingly unpopular Bush and his disastrous military adventure in Iraq.

Giuliani's supporters believe his can-do profile as "America's mayor" is just what voters are hungry for, and McCain is betting that Americans want a combat-tested leader who will tell it like it is, even when it's bad news. But Bush's presidency is turning toxic in the public mind, and support for the war in Iraq and his leadership continues to unravel. The danger is that Bush's legacy could prove fatal for any Republican presidential candidate.