By Philip Willan in Rome

ITALIANS begin voting in a general election today against the backdrop of a declining economy, disenchantment with politics and growing self-doubt.

The competition between the ebullient media magnate Silvio Berlusconi, seeking his third term as prime minister, and the serious-minded former mayor of Rome, Walter Veltroni, may be too close to call.

One political group is certain to do well: those who spoil their ballot or can't be bothered to vote at all.

The election will measure the temperature of a country in a state that is somewhere between malingering and genuine malaise. Though opinion polls indicate Berlusconi as the winner, his younger rival has been campaigning effectively and may have succeeded in whittling away much of his advantage.

An electoral law passed by the last Berlusconi government with the intention of depriving Romano Prodi of a workable majority in the Senate - described as a "porcata", or "pig's ear" by its own author - may now have the effect of hobbling Berlusconi himself.

And a government with a fragile parliamentary majority is unlikely to take the decisive measures needed to reform a sclerotic government bureaucracy or bring down the country's economic and social fever.

The intersection of politics and illegality has long been a problem in Italy. Berlusconi himself has been tried repeatedly for crimes ranging from bribing public officials to false accounting and embezzlement. He has either been acquitted or saved from conviction by the statute of limitations, sometimes as a direct result of changes to the law introduced by his own government.

So it was a peculiar irony that the weak and divided Prodi government - just two years old - should fall after the news that the justice minister, Clemente Mastella, was under investigation for corruption.

Activists say some 100 candidates fielded in today's election have judicial problems of varying degrees of gravity.

Confidence in politicians is at an all-time low. A book, The Caste, denouncing their privileges, incompetence and abuses, has become a bestseller and spawned imitations denouncing other privileged castes, such as those of journalists and trade unionists.

Unfortunately there is little faith in the independence of the judiciary or its ability to remedy the abuses. The fact that several Mafia bosses from the Sicilian town of Gela were released from prison because the judge who convicted them took eight years to write up the sentence was hardly encouraging.

Berlusconi has called on his supporters to become "missionaries of freedom", warning them to be on the alert for attempts at electoral fraud by the outgoing centre-left government.

At first sight it might seem alarmist, but magistrates in Reggio Calabria have reportedly discovered a plot by members of the Calabrian and Sicilian Mafias to interfere with the postal votes of Italians living abroad.

Interior minister Giuliano Amato said his officials were closely monitoring the situation, which risked giving the impression that Italy was "worse then Zimbabwe".

Organised crime is believed to be capable of influencing the vote of between 5% and 20% of the population in certain southern regions.

To prevent people from photographing their ballots - to show Mafia bosses how they voted, for example - the government has banned camera-equipped mobile phones from all polling stations.

Whoever wins the election, the result of which should be known late on Monday, will have to respond swiftly to a number of long-running and intractable emergencies that have severely damaged Italy's reputation.

The garbage crisis in the Naples area, for example, has left an impression of government incompetence and rampant nimbyism. Images of Naples streets piled high with rubbish have scared away tourists and had a knock-on effect in the dioxin-tainted mozzarella scandal. To respond to these emergencies, Berlusconi announced that, if elected, his first cabinet meeting would be held in Naples.

On the economic front, he will need to stimulate productivity in a country trailing its European rivals and that the International Monetary Fund predicts will grow by a laggardly 0.3% over the next two years, and also do something to save the national airline, Alitalia, from imminent bankruptcy.

The "family" solutions he has offered so far have not been universally popular. Berlusconi told a female student that the solution to her financial problems would be to marry a millionaire, like his son, while he suggested that Alitalia could be saved by a largely imaginary Italian consortium, possibly including his own children.

"Economic themes are the ones that exert the most influence on voter intentions," said Nando Pagnoncelli, head of the Ipsos market research company.

"Job insecurity is another universal problem. It affects not just the young but people in their 40s and 50s who fear they will not find another job if they lose their current one.

"And there is a question of perceived poverty, with 20% of Italian families having to make do on less than 1200 (£960) a month."

Pagnoncelli said the coalition that had been trailing at the beginning of the election campaign had recovered strongly at the last two elections and the same thing was happening this time as well.

"There is a significant section of the electorate that only pays attention in the last two weeks," he said.

Beppe Grillo, a comic turned political activist, is convinced whoever wins will have an unstable majority and be unable to govern for much more than a year.

"There's a tsunami coming that will sweep them all away," he said. "I want a politics that addresses the problems of my son, of the world he will live in. I never hear the politicians talking about that. They are incapable of planning the future. They built a road from Turin to Malpensa Airport and the road was inaugurated on the day the airport closed."

Veltroni, the underdog in these elections and 19 years younger than the 71-year-old Berlusconi, has campaigned astutely, portraying himself as a breath of fresh air in the stuffy world of Italian politics, refusing to get drawn into a slanging match with his opponent and concentrating on the concrete problems facing the country.

As mayor of Rome he has a mixed record, promoting high-profile cultural events such as the city's new international film festival, but allowing parts of the centre to degenerate into a noisy and chaotic entertainment zone, with wall-to-wall bars and nightclubs.

A Veltroni victory probably represents the best hope for the radical and painful change the demoralised country so desperately needs. Without it, the "bel paese" (beautiful country) is likely to continue its depressing slide into what can only be described as the "ugly society".