It�s as easy as (2TxA/C)F claims psychologist

THE age-old debate over whether the Oscars ceremony is about artistic merit or big bucks has finally been solved - by a mathematical formula.

According to the results of a major new survey published this weekend by David Moxon, head of psychology at Peterborough College and an expert on consumer behaviour and entertainment, box-office takings are the single most influential factor determining a film's chances of success.

"The real secret of how to succeed at the Oscars is putting bums on seats," said Moxon. "Our research clearly shows the difference between being a nominee or a winner is largely determined by the number of tickets sold and, while Helen Mirren's performance in The Queen will see her crowned best actress, in all probability it is The Departed that will walk away with the prize for best picture."

Moxon's study, conducted in conjunction with pollsters YouGov and sponsored by Tiscali, is the result of a wide-ranging analysis of the movie business.

The research shows this year's awards will be one of the closest races in years, but with The Departed's $278m takings dwarfing Babel's $100m haul and the $97.5m grossed by The Queen, the team behind the study predicts The Departed will emerge triumphant from tonight's awards. Only once in the past five years has a nominee ranked third at the box office clinched the golden statuette.

However, while establishing that crowd-pulling success gives a film the best chance of winning Hollywood's biggest prize, Moxon's research also revealed a mathematical formula to illustrate what really draws the crowds.

According to the study, the reasons we go to see a film are determined by viewings of the trailer (T) multiplied by a favourite actor appearing in the film (A) divided by critics' opinions (C). This is all multiplied by the key F factor, a friend's recommendation.

The secret of pulling in the punters, therefore = (2TxA/C)F, indicating that word-of-mouth marketing via SMS campaigns, blogs and the internet are having a powerful effect on the films we see and their overall success.

"Film-makers may have to completely rethink the way they try to reach the paying public," said Moxon.

Although this is the first research project of its kind, the formula for Hollywood success has been rejected by some film experts. "Cash does count, but it's more about promoting movies to voting academy members than it is bums on seats. Millions are spent in the run-up to the Oscars by studios trying to influence the final vote, and that is really the critical factor," said Sunday Herald film critic Demetrios Matheou.

"I think it's impossible to predict a winner by applying such a formula. The Oscars are awarded by a panel of insiders, and as such cannot be taken as any kind of litmus test of what the public thinks or feels about anything."