Salmond's on a roll ... but can it last?

But after such heights, will it all start to go downhill? Or can the First Minister somehow sustain this heady state of affairs another 12 months?

Initially, at least, all might be well.

In fact, things could even get better in May, when the local elections give the SNP the chance to lock down Scotland's political system.

Since capturing Holyrood, the Great Leader and his Great Successor, Nicola Sturgeon, have been looking at how to oust Labour from their last strongholds in west and central Scotland.

In particular, Sturgeon has been working on plans to wrest control of Glasgow City Council.

Defeating Labour on their home turf and taking over the City Chambers would be huge for the SNP.

Not only would it mean an early, and potentially lethal, setback for the new Labour leader Johann Lamont, it would also be a major step forward on the road to independence – because to win its referendum on separation, the SNP knows it has to win votes in the big centres of population, like Glasgow and Lanarkshire.

Converting voters in the local elections should make it easier to sell them on the merits of independence a couple of years down the line.

Helped by local Labour infighting, the SNP's prospects in Glasgow are remarkably good.

Many in Labour accept the party will lose its majority in the city, and could be out of power altogether if the SNP leads a council coalition.

The local elections are also be a key test for Ruth Davidson, the new Scottish Conservatives' leader.

So far, she has been keen to salute David Cameron whenever possible, binding the Scottish Tories tightly to the party in London.

Salmond believes the Prime Minister is an electoral liability north of the Border, almost as unpopular as Nick Clegg.

If the SNP takes seats from Tories as well as Labour and the LibDems, it will vindicate the First Minister and undermine Davidson.

As he looks ahead to 2012, Salmond can also take comfort in having the strongest front bench team at Holyrood – with Sturgeon, John Swinney, Kenny MacAskill and Mike Russell dwarfing their counterparts – and the most united backbenches.

Westminster's belated response to the SNP win of 2007, the Scotland Bill, will be cause for more contentment as it shuffles out the House of Lords.

Not because it satisfies the SNP – its changes to income tax are seen as a potential menace by Salmond – but because of what it symbolises: London's failure to meet Scotland's aspirations.

A patronising ragbag of consolation prizes – devolution of stamp duty here, speed limits there – it is being hyped by Westminster as the biggest transfer of power in three centuries. But it seems more like the shiny beads once doled out to restless natives.

Salmond will take the new powers, while shrugging them off as unworthy and citing them as more evidence of why Scotland needs independence. But there are also problems ahead.

On the domestic front, Salmond must resolve the divisions over gay marriage, which he supports, but many of his supporters do not.

The First Minister must also hope his messy law designed to tackle sectarian behaviour around football does not unravel when tested in court.

Sturgeon's plan for a minimum price for alcohol may yet be copied by Westminster, but that does not mean voters will relish handing over more for their booze when it becomes law.

And then there is the more general question of what to do with that whopping majority at Holyrood.

Since May, it has been more impressive as a spectacle than a legislative force, twiddling its thumbs until the occasional Bill comes by.

Davidson hit the mark just before Christmas when she referred to the ranks of under-employed SNP MSPs as "non-essential staff".

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, also detects the nagging sense of Holyrood waiting for something to happen.

"They have made it more difficult to sing IRA songs at an Old Firm match and are making it more expensive to buy booze. That shows a remarkable willingness to take on a variety of Scottish vested interests.

"But beyond that, what are they going to do with their majority? The legislative programme still seems terribly thin."

However, the biggest tests for Salmond in 2012 are likely to be external, rather than homegrown. Number one is the economy.

Over the past year, Salmond's "Plan MacB" – the idea the country could invest and build its way through a global slump – has stumbled badly.

Unwise boasts about Scotland's relatively low unemployment rate are also back to haunt him. A few weeks ago, the Scottish rate returned to being higher than the UK average.

Salmond may have been right when he urged the UK Government to keep up capital spending and investment, but that in itself was never enough to insulate a country against the downturn.

Last week, the Lloyds TSB Scotland Business Monitor described Scotland being sucked into the same economic bog as the UK and the eurozone.

Exports are plummeting, consumer and business confidence nosediving, an already weak recovery is stalling, and more job losses are looming.

The First Minister's Plan MacB is now held up by his opponents as rose-tinted rubbish.

Even one senior SNP source admitted: "The Plan MacB stuff was basically spin. Was there ever anything of substance to it? It's very doubtful ... There's nothing for right now."

Of course, Salmond will also be able to enlist the recession to his political advantage, arguing that if Scotland were independent it could use the full panoply of economic powers to help it.

But the downturn shows economic levers are not much use if nothing happens when you pull them; the slump seems to have disconnected the works.

Worse for Salmond, a recession means a likely fall in the price of oil, exposing the degree to which an independent Scotland would rely on it.

If the price really dropped, if demand in China fell, say, then it could make better financial sense to stay in the Union than leave.

The other union figuring large in Salmond's year is Europe, and within it the eurozone.

Last month's European Council in Brussels got lots of headlines for David Cameron's veto on a new treaty, but behind the bluster very little was done to save the imploding currency.

There were 10 such summits last year, each underlining the failure of its predecessor, and the collective failure of Europe's leaders. There seems no reason to hope for better in 2012.

But with markets now demanding killer bond yields of 7% from Italy, the third-largest eurozone economy, the situation is far graver than a year ago when the focus was on Greece and Ireland.

Besides the worsening economic fall-out, the problems in Europe also pose awkward political questions for Salmond and his Europhile party.

The SNP says Scotland would automatically become a full EU member upon independence, but would that also mean automatic conversion to the euro?

Salmond said not, his opponents said yes.

To many voters, the row at Holyrood over the SNP's position on Europe will have been thoroughly obscure, but it was a turning point, with big implications for the referendum campaign.

It was the moment the Unionist dog found its bark.

After six months in a daze, Labour, LibDems and Tories began acting as a co-ordinated opposition.

They repeated the trick in a group assault on the anti-sectarianism legislation a week later.

This weekend, the three parties are using New Year messages to urge Salmond to name the date for his referendum. It is no coincidence.

There will be more joined-up attacks.

The wider political and media establishment south of the Border is also stirring.

The Spectator magazine named Salmond its Politician Of The Year, while The Times, only half-ironically, dubbed him Briton Of The Year.

The Guardian has run a series of admiring comment pieces on the First Minister, the most recent noting his "ferocious talent" could split the UK.

In recent days, the Union's fate has been raised by outgoing Cabinet Secretary Sir Gus O'Donnell and former Commons Speaker Betty Boothroyd.

Admiral Lord West, the former chief of the Royal Navy, is warning separation would mean "disaster" for Scotland's defence industry workers.

Independent experts continue to unpick Salmond's vision of a renewables revolution.

The questions are crowding in fast.

Next year, as he looks back on 2012, Salmond may wonder what happened to the easy ride.