Another global recession triggering a catastrophic banking crisis is keeping bankers awake at night, according to a survey of the world's banking industry from the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI).
The main cause of anxiety is the eurozone crisis, with the shock of a euro collapse liable to hit banks not just in Europe but in all major regions of the world, says CSFI's annual Banking Banana Skins survey, produced in association with PwC.
Bankers in countries such as the US, Canada, China, Argentina and Australia put the euro crisis at the top of their list of concerns, and banking anxiety levels are at their highest since the survey began 13 years ago.
They anticipated that the immediate consequence of a crash would be large credit losses, followed by a funding crisis with banks cut off from access to liquidity and fresh capital.
Just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the UK growth forecast for 2012 to 0.6%, the survey says economic instability is at the top of a list of 30 big risks to banks and their customers.
Credit risk, liquidity, the availability of capital and political interference were next highest on banker's agendas this year.
The poll is based on responses from more than 700 bankers, banking regulators and close observers of the banking industry in 58 countries.
Steve Davies, Edinburgh-based head of UK retail banking at PwC, said: "For most of Scotland's banks, the top five issues are clearly interlinked and reflect the anxiety and uncertainty posed by the ongoing eurozone crisis.
"This is further exacerbated by the threat of a broader credit squeeze and what almost seems like a period of continual regulatory change for these institutions."
He added: "As they struggle to generate adequate returns across their business, there is a risk that we may see more restructuring of businesses and as a result, further job losses as the banks seek to drive down costs."
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