A long, cold, wet winter suddenly turned into the hottest summer on record for the UK, and Scottish farmers feared the worst for their 2018 harvest.

Thankfully, many have been pleasantly surprised by their harvests this autumn, reporting better than expected yields considering the tumultuous weather they have suffered.

Typical of a Scottish harvest, after a dry summer the weather broke at just the wrong time around mid-August leaving many with a stop-start harvest between spells of rain.

Across the board many have seen poorer average yields from winter and spring barley, as well as for straw. The picture for wheat has been mixed, with some reporting good quality, while others say that it got hit hard at the start of the summer and never fully recovered. Nevertheless, spirits are high among many farmers who feel it could have been much worse considering the weather they have had.

The same cannot be said for several other countries in the EU that experienced much lighter yields of grain as a result of drought.

The tightening of grain supplies in the EU coincides with lighter harvests in other parts of the world such as South America and Australia that have also experienced droughts, as well as an increased demand for feed wheat from pig and poultry producers. As a result, prices for grain on international markets have firmed.

Sadly, while prices for grain in the UK are better than last year, many farmers have cautiously opted to sell a fair proportion forward at lesser values, and have little left to sell at inflated prices on the spot market. Still, I suppose it is better to be safe than sorry.

In the run up to harvest, many farmers bemoaned the fact that yields looked like they would be lighter and that there would be a shortage of grain - as if that was a bad thing. The reality is that farmers are price-takers, not price price-makers and have to accept what processors and traders are prepared to pay for their produce. Farmers regularly produce more than the market can comfortably absorb, and as a result they inflict depressed prices on themselves.

It only takes production to be slightly lower, at say one per cent less than demand, to create a shortage, while a little more than one per cent of overproduction saturates the market and depresses prices..

The reality, as this year's harvest clearly demonstrates, is that shortages are good as they push up prices.

Of course, not all farmers are pleased to see a spike in grain prices. Feed accounts for more than 60 per cent of the cost of pig and poultry production, so those producers are currently experiencing a severe pinch. It's much the same for dairy and beef producers.

There is an old saying, "Up corn, down horn". What that means is that when grain prices rise, the price of store cattle, (half-grown ones that are bought to be fattened, or finished as farmers say) tend to fall. The converse of that saying, "Down corn, up horn", suggests that when prices of grain are low, cattle finishers pay better prices for store cattle so they can convert their cheap grain into expensive, prime beef.

This year we are seeing "Up corn, down horn" as beef finishers, well aware that the price of feed grain and straw for fodder and bedding has risen significantly, cautiously bid for store cattle this autumn. Their pessimistic outlook for profit margins on finishing cattle this winter may be misplaced, and prices for prime cattle may rise in the spring. As with other businesses, farmers can't see into the future and have to budget in the light of prevailing profit margins.

Many livestock producers, particularly dairy and beef farmers were anticipating fodder shortages this winter as a result of lighter yields of silage, hay and straw. Light yields of first-cut silage due to the dry conditions, were being fed to dairy cows this summer to supplement their drought-stricken, parched grazing. Fortunately there was a surge in grass growth in response to the rain that fell during August and September, which enabled farmers to make extra silage to fill half empty pits.

The anticipated shortage of straw for fodder and bedding was also eased as more arable farmers baled their straw rather than chopping and incorporating it into the soil.

The availability and cost of buying feed and fodder is still going to be a major worry for many this year, so a good open and dry backend that allows cattle to graze outside longer would be a big help.