Pinstripe: 'The most sensible thing to do is have another referendum'

First, the view that the current muddle is all the fault of the wicked Tory Government, split down the middle, unable to agree a way forward. Does anybody really think that Labour would be charting a more united and successful course were it in Government? - I rather doubt it. The position in Parliament reflects the position in the UK, as a nation we are broadly split down the middle on the principle of in or out and, all over the place on exactly what variant on each theme we want.

The second thing which is strange is that the great difficulty in negotiating a satisfactory position on Brexit has come as A Big Surprise. The rest of the EU don’t want us to leave but even more than that they don’t want us to have the best of both worlds - able to trade freely in the EU single market but under our own rules and able to do what we like elsewhere in the world. This was never going to happen. The Brexiteers told us it would be easy and wonderful, some of them were too stupid to see the obvious pitfalls of their plans - others knew the truth and just lied.

The terms which we could agree to leave the EU were always going to be a messy and difficult compromise. Mrs May’s tenacity has got us probably about as good an agreement as we could get whilst still actually leaving the EU. At last we can see what the deal is - and we don’t really like it.

The interesting point is what this episode sheds on any move by Scotland towards independence. In comparative terms, the UK leaving the EU is like breaking up with your girlfriend of three years - there is a bit of an issue over who gets to keep the TV and the cat but you can go your separate ways reasonably easily. If Scotland left the UK it would be like splitting up after your Golden Wedding Anniversary - difficult, painful and very destructive. The damage to the UK economy of leaving the EU would be light compared to that of the damage to the Scottish economy of Scotland leaving the UK. Those who say otherwise are either not very smart - or not telling the truth. If Scotland left the UK the effect on the Scottish economy would be devastating.

What we now need, urgently, is a way forward on Brexit. If we don’t get it the economy, jobs and public services will suffer significant harm. The adverse effect would be less because of the impact of leaving the EU - that is actually manageable - and more because of continued uncertainty. Businesses and consumers need certainty in order to make decisions. Continued paralysis is deeply unhelpful.

The most sensible thing to do is have another referendum. This needs to be held quickly - before Christmas, which is perfectly possible as we have all been bombarded with the issues on Brexit for far too long.

The crucial thing is that the referendum must not be a single question but instead three choices which voters rank in order of preference on a transferable vote basis. The three choices would be: Go with the deal Mrs May has negotiated, Just leave and not bother agreeing a deal or, Decide that leaving is a bad idea now that we see the precise terms and stay in the EU.

This process would allow a real and informed choice. We need to get on with it quickly.

Pinstripe is a senior member of Scotland's financial services community.