THE UK Government, in a deep, deep hole over Brexit, seems determined to do only one thing: keep on digging.
And, as the experts continue to set out calmly what the post-Brexit future will look like, the Conservatives would rather thump their tubs loudly while digging themselves to new depths.
In an alternate reality, in which the Brexit vote had not happened, things might have been winding down for the festive season.
It has been another frantic and at times hysterical week on the Leave front.
When the Conservatives are in power, you can always expect the “send in the troops” chat to begin when they feel under particular pressure over their handling of an issue. And sure enough, this week we had the confirmation that the army had been put on standby to deal with the effects of a no-deal Brexit, with 3,500 troops “held in readiness”.
One thing the troops will be unable to do, you would imagine, is prevent the deep recession that the Bank of England forecasts in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
The troops talk all looks to be part of Prime Minister Theresa May’s drive to paint the scene of a no-deal Brexit being the likely consequence if the draft withdrawal agreement between the UK and European Union is voted down in Parliament. When we eventually get to a vote that is – for now, it has been put back until mid-January.
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However, while a no-deal Brexit would be calamitous, there is plenty to be fearful of as well if the UK exits the EU by means of the draft withdrawal agreement.
The short-term impact would be less dramatic with a deal but relief over avoiding the cliff-edge should not blind people to the very, very grim long-term consequences of leaving the EU and the single market.
There has been a lot of Tory noise this week, and some of it has been quite frightening.
The biggest scare came with the white paper on the Tories’ plans for the immigration system post-Brexit. The plans laid out signal that the Conservatives’ main aim is, surprise, surprise, to reduce very dramatically net immigration to the UK from EU countries in the post-Brexit world.
Obviously, this is driven by ideology and pandering to a vocal and highly misinformed section of the electorate.
However, the UK economy, even before Brexit actually happens, is already being hit hard by a sharp fall in net immigration from EU countries since the ill-judged June 2016 vote.
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In particular, the Tories are hell-bent on reducing the immigration of lower-skilled workers from the EU. Those lower-skilled workers who have for years been playing such a crucial role in the economy and society in the UK.
The Scottish hospitality, food manufacturing and construction sectors, as well as many others, rely heavily on people who have moved here from elsewhere in the EU. Scotland’s key engineering sector is among many already feeling the fall-out from the Brexit vote in terms of skills shortages, with the departure of workers who had come here from elsewhere in the EU and a reluctance among potential future migrants to come to the UK.
Whether high, medium or low-skilled, citizens of other EU countries are likely to be put off coming to the UK because of the degree of intolerance currently being demonstrated by some vociferous people. They will also think twice because of the UK’s determination to replace free movement with a bureaucratic, and unpalatable, immigration system.
Restricting immigration in the way the Tories plan will have a massive effect on the UK’s growth, which is already utterly lamentable because of the Brexit fall-out so far and the impact of the savage austerity programme implemented by the Conservatives since 2010.
Read More: Ian McConnell: Tory Brexit tale of sound and fury but this is ‘unhinged self-sabotage’
Stephen Martin, director-general of the Institute of Directors, put it well when he responded to the immigration white paper, entitled ‘The UK’s Future Skills-based Immigration System’.
He declared: “Context is everything here. Unemployment is near record lows, vacancies are at all-time highs and businesses are reporting skills shortages at all levels. There is both an absolute shortage of people available, which can’t be met by the domestic workforce, and specific gaps in areas that companies need to keep up with global competition.”
It is difficult to understand why the UK Government is not understanding – or is refusing to hear – what it is being told by employers on this front.
The demographic factors in the UK are simple. The UK needs to boost, not restrict, its working-age population as it tries to drag itself out of its economic malaise. Workers from other EU countries will also be increasingly crucial in terms of their contribution to the tax base, as the UK population ages. And Scotland, which voted to stay in the EU, is in particular need of buoyant net immigration.
Mr Martin said: “The economy faces many challenges, both in the short and the long term, and none of them will be easier to address if we pull up the drawbridge. Trying to compete in an increasingly fractious global economy with an overly restrictive migration policy is like trying to run a marathon with your shoelaces tied together.”
The UK Government, it seems, does not want to run a marathon. It would rather dig itself ever deeper into a hole. Perhaps it is trying to find remnants of the old days of the Empire?
Back up here in the real world, British Chambers of Commerce has this week estimated that UK growth this year will be just 1.2% – the weakest since 2009. It forecast expansion of only 1.3% next year.
And PricewaterhouseCoopers this week forecast the UK will slide in the global rankings to become the seventh-largest economy in 2019. The accountancy firm predicts India and France will surpass the UK next year.
It would not be so bad if the UK Government’s effort to whip up a mood of nostalgia and pride were some kind of esoteric thing, like the message on the outside of a mug for tea.
Sadly, it is not. With Brexit, Britain is most definitely digging a hole for itself, and it is ordinary people, many of them Leave voters, who will pay the price for this stupidity in terms of their living standards, unless the exit can be prevented.
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