SCOTTISH economic growth in the third quarter of 2018 has been revised down from 0.3 per cent to 0.2% – trailing UK-wide expansion markedly as a period of significant outperformance ended – and manufactured exports fell.

The Scottish Government, publishing the latest gross domestic product figures yesterday, attributed the downward revision of its initial estimate of third-quarter growth published last month to electricity generation being lower than estimated initially.

Scottish GDP growth in the third quarter was well adrift of a corresponding UK-wide rate of expansion of 0.6%. This underperformance followed a period in which Scottish growth was significantly ahead of that in the UK as a whole.

In the first quarter of 2018, the Scottish economy grew by 0.4%, four times the 0.1% rate of expansion recorded for the UK as a whole. And GDP rose by 0.5% in Scotland during the three months to June 2018, ahead of UK-wide growth of 0.4% over this period.

Comparing the year to last September with the preceding 12 months, Scottish GDP was up by 1.5%. This is in line with UK-wide expansion over the same timeframe.

Scottish manufacturing output fell 0.9% quarter-on-quarter during the three months to September. However, comparing the year to last September with the prior 12 months, it was up 3.2%

A Confederation of British Industry survey published today shows the impact of political and economic uncertainty on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector across the UK.

Alpesh Paleja, the CBI’s principal economist, said: “Uncertainty in the domestic and global trading environment is clearly hitting manufacturing SMEs hard, with sentiment falling, concerns over political and economic conditions abroad spiking, and investment plans still well down on the past year. To give the UK’s SME manufacturers some much-needed certainty, it is crucial that politicians now work together to break the Brexit deadlock.”

The CBI noted business optimism among the the UK’s SME manufacturers had dropped for a second consecutive quarter in the three months to January, with export sentiment falling at the fastest pace since the financial crisis. And SME manufacturers’ concerns that political and economic conditions abroad were likely to limit their future ability to obtain export orders rose to the highest level since records began in 1988.

Meanwhile, a survey published today by pollster GfK highlights the continuing weakness of UK consumer confidence, as well as household fears over the economy.

At -14 in January, GfK’s overall UK consumer confidence index is unchanged from December and down five points on the opening month of 2018. The reading for household confidence about the general economic situation over the next 12 months, at -39, is the lowest for more than seven years. GfK noted it was getting close to levels seen in late 2008 and early 2009 – a period of deep recession triggered by the global financial crisis.

Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said: “This is unsurprising given that consumers, companies and corporations thrive on certainty, which is in short supply just two months before the planned date for the UK’s EU exit. The next few months promise to be turbulent for the consumer.”

The Scottish Government GDP figures show the construction sector north of the Border grew by 2.9% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to last September. Services sector growth in Scotland slowed to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018 from 0.5% in the preceding three months.

Household spending has continued to rise at a faster pace than disposable income, the Scottish Government figures show. Consequently, the savings ratio, the proportion of income left for saving or investment, fell to 1.5% in the third quarter, having been 3.3% in the same period of 2017.

Scottish manufactured export volumes fell by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September last year, and were down by 1.2% on the same period of 2017, according to the latest quarterly figures.

Separate official figures published yesterday show Scotland’s international exports, excluding oil and gas, jumped by £1.9 billion to £32.4bn in 2017. The Scottish Government noted this increase, at 6.2 per cent, was the strongest growth in any year since 2011.