Edinburgh is most susceptible to an economic hit due to Covid-19 restrictions as Scotland faces a loss of more than 8% in growth, according to a study.

KPMG is forecasting negative gross value added (GVA) north of the border of at least 8.1% in 2020.

The analysis, which is based on the sectoral make-up of Scotland, predicts Edinburgh - including the wider Lothians region - has the highest level of exposure.

This is due to spending by foreign tourists accounting for around 3.4% of the city's economy - more than any other region in the UK.

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Catherine Burnet, senior partner at KPMG in Scotland, said: "It's clear to see that the Covid-19 pandemic is transforming our everyday lives.

"The lockdown has hit industries like tourism and retail hard, and that's undoubtedly going to take its toll on a vibrant, dynamic city like Edinburgh which has become a global tourist hotspot.

"Our forecast highlights the sheer scale of the challenge ahead.

"Conditions will be tough as we go through recession over the coming months, but there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic that some lost ground can be recovered in 2021."

The study predicts a potential GVA growth in 2021 of 9%, assuming public health measures bring the pandemic under control by next year.

It comes as Edinburgh City Council warned “radical action” will be needed amid fears the authority could lose more than £53 million if the Covid-19 pandemic lasts for six months.

Most oil producers in the UK's North Sea are still competitive even in the face of massively depressed oil prices, a leading trade association has said.

Oil companies have been squeezed in recent weeks, as the price of Brent crude, the main benchmark used by UK producers, dropped to lows not seen in more than 20 years.

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However, although they are in an "unpleasant place", many oil firms have hedged large portions of their production, giving them a lot more breathing space, said Mike Tholen, sustainability director at Oil & Gas UK.

It means buyers have already agreed to purchase oil from the producers at a price fixed before markets collapsed.

Mr Tholen said: "Many of the companies operating in the basin, mercifully, are not just takers of the current Brent price, but have hedged positions which allow them to take a slightly more long-term perspective on the consequences of the oil price.

"Most of the portfolio in the UK is still competitive at 30 dollars a barrel, albeit it probably doesn't enjoy 30 dollars a barrel. So there is still the ability to sustain operations at this period, even at current prices if they prevail for a while."

Oil prices in the US dropped into negative territory earlier this week, with producers paying buyers to take oil off their hands as storage sites brimmed over and demand collapsed.

A similar collapse is still not expected to be repeated in the UK; however, the price of a barrel of Brent oil briefly dropped below 19 dollars, and is still languishing at around 22 dollars.
It is a marked climb-down from the beginning of the year, when prices were around 64 dollars.

The fortunes of the UK's North Sea industry, which is largely based in Scotland, has always risen and fallen with the price of oil.

An oil price collapse in 2014 had a heavy impact on the economy of Aberdeen, which was once rumoured to have more high-end sports cars than any other UK city.

The city was getting back on its feet after several years in the doldrums, with the economy set to grow by around 1.5% a year over the next decade, according to a local council report released in November.

Mr Tholen said: "The challenge for our supply chain is for us to have sight of how fast activity will return to the basin."

After five or six weeks "many companies are still trying to get to grips with the full impact on their business", he added.

Charities and community groups working with vulnerable children are among those helped by a donation of thousands of pieces of personal protective equipment (PPE) from City of Glasgow College.

It has handed over more than 800 pairs of safety goggles, 15,000 pairs of protective gloves, 200 overalls and 3,500 protective aprons, among other items.

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The PPE is usually used by students in construction, engineering, hair and beauty and healthcare courses, as well as by the cleaning staff.

It has been donated to Alzheimer's Scotland, East Park, Sense Scotland Adult Services, Simon Community Scotland, Threshold Glasgow (Crossreach), Hope for Glasgow, Action for Children, Street Connect, Quarriers and Ayrshire Hospice.

Catriona Campbell, head of education at the charity East Park in Maryhill, Glasgow, which provides schooling and supported accommodation to children and young people with additional support needs, welcomed the donation.

She said: "Our heartfelt thanks go to everyone at City of Glasgow College for their support at this extremely challenging time.

"We support children and young people with significant learning disabilities, autism and some young people who have health needs that leave them extremely vulnerable, particularly under the current circumstances.

"East Park's residential service runs all year round and our young people need constant, close care and attention.

"The PPE so generously provided by City of Glasgow College has helped ensure our incredible staff are properly protected as they continue their work and also provides reassurance to the families who have entrusted their children to us."

Les Paterson, head of estates at City of Glasgow College, said: "With our buildings currently closed, it makes sense that the protective equipment we have in stock is given to those that need it and will use it.

"We also emptied our store of tinned and dried goods, which we delivered to Glasgow-based charity, Refuweegee, ahead of the recent Easter break."

Paul Little, the college's principal and chief executive, said: "As Scotland's largest college it is right that we contribute to the national and civic resilience effort during this public health crisis.

"A number of our staff and students have volunteered for NHS and care worker support roles, while others are utilising college equipment to produce protective equipment.

"Our two halls of residence also remain operational, supporting the welfare of both vulnerable care-experienced students, international students, and those from elsewhere in the UK who are unable to travel home during this lockdown."

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