Ian McConnell: High time for Tory attitude change as Brexit impasse fuels alarm

Mr Barnier certainly seems much less irascible than Phil Connors, the television weatherman played so hilariously by Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, in spite of how the EU chief negotiator might be portrayed in some Brexit-supporting sections of the media. The lack of willingness to find common ground in the talks rather seems to rest with the UK camp. The excruciating parallel with Groundhog Day is limited to Mr Barnier seemingly having to endure broadly the same pattern of events over and over again with no sign of things ever getting out of this loop. It is a strong parallel nonetheless.

The Conservative Government, as we know, says that it wants a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU. However, it remains difficult to escape the impression that it is throwing as many obstacles as possible in the way of this. This attitude is in such stark contrast to the starry-eyed approach to trade talks with the US, which look highly likely to be protracted and might well not bring any net benefit to the UK’s economy and society even if they are eventually concluded. The UK Government’s own forecasts show that even the net economic benefit it is pursuing with the US talks would be very small indeed relative to what the country stands to lose in the event of a no-deal exit from the European single market. And the price that UK society might have to pay for the at-best tiny benefit from any US deal remains to be seen.

It also continues to appear there is much playing to the gallery in the talks with the EU, which is perhaps not surprising given it was the Brexiter voters who won Boris Johnson his big election victory in December.

Following the end of the fourth round of post-Brexit relationship talks between the UK and EU last week, the firm impression remains that Conservative Brexiters are far more focused on ideology, and their perception of the UK as a huge global force, than on economic realities and on what is good for households and businesses in these grim times.

Mr Barnier said on Friday that he wanted to thank chief UK negotiator David Frost personally and also the two teams in the discussions for “the mutual respect that they have shown, for the quality of their work in these difficult circumstances, and for their professionalism”.

That said, he declared: “However, at the end of this week, my responsibility – under the authority of [European Commission] President Ursula von der Leyen – as Union negotiator, is to tell you the truth. And the truth is that there was no substantial progress.”

Mr Barnier had on June 2, ahead of the talks, declared the EU had “a crucial week ahead of us to make tangible progress across all areas, in line [with] the political declaration”.

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There was little, if anything at all, in the detail of Mr Barnier’s statement to reassure the businesses and households not beguiled by the Brexit ideology which are, rightly, increasingly fearful of tumbling out of the European single market without a deal on December 31.

Of course, many of those arch-Brexiters from both ends of the political spectrum fuelled by anti-immigration sentiment do not seem to care if there is a deal or not. As long as they get their way in terms of a clampdown on immigration, the huge economic cost of this to the UK and the loss of frictionless trade does not matter one whit to them.

The Conservative Government, for its part, should of course know by now that departure from the European single market under any circumstances carries with it a major economic cost. After all, the forecasts drawn up by the Theresa May administration, even as it was doggedly pursuing a departure from the single market and customs union, show plainly that this is the case.

Without extension of the transition period – which has thankfully kept the UK in the single market following the technical Brexit on January 31 and preserved free movement of people and frictionless trade – the country will start paying the price for the folly of the Leavers after December 31. It will be a high price, paid over years and decades, whatever the case, and will be even greater in the event of a no-deal scenario.

However, this has not stopped UK Cabinet ministers indicating that they will, if they have to, leave without a deal.

Remember Mr Johnson’s declaration, ahead of his big election victory in December, that the UK would leave the European single market at the end of this year “no matter what”?

The huge economic damage from the coronavirus crisis has not changed Tory Cabinet minsters’ minds in this respect. There is little sign that it is going to, with calls for an extension of the transition period having been ignored thus far.

One thing Mr Barnier and Mr Frost appeared to agree on was the lack of progress in the talks. Mr Frost’s description of “limited progress” chimed with the remarks of Mr Barnier, in contrast to the two sides’ continuing absolute lack of harmony in terms of negotiating positions.

While confirmation from Mr Barnier and Mr Frost of the lack of progress was predictable, it did further fuel worries in a business community now under huge pressure from the impact of the coronavirus crisis.

Confederation of British Industry deputy director-general Josh Hardie said: “Progress is worryingly slow, causing deep concern to firms when resilience has rarely been more fragile.

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“The stark reality is that most businesses are understandably unprepared for a dramatic change in trading relations with our biggest partner in just six months’ time. With jobs in every region of the UK and EU under pressure, the stakes are higher than ever.”

He is right – resilience has rarely been more fragile. And the stakes are high indeed.

Mr Hardie also voiced his belief that “an ambitious deal with the EU will be a cornerstone of the UK’s recovery from the pandemic”.

And he made plain the CBI’s view that a no-deal outcome would be “worse” than the extension to the transition period that the UK Government has said it will not allow.

Appealing for political leaders to “step in urgently, change the dynamic and find solutions that protect people’s livelihoods”, he added: “Failure to break the deadlock only leaves a choice between an extension that the UK Government has already ruled out or worse, a deeply damaging no-deal.”

The CBI has recently seemed relatively diplomatic towards the UK Government on the Brexit front, which is all the more reason the Conservatives should listen to this mildly worded but entirely clear intervention.

Mr Barnier said, at the end of last week’s round of negotiations, that, on fisheries, the UK “continues to condition access to its waters to an annual negotiation – which is technically impossible for us…whereas the EU wants to build a more stable economic partnership”.

On the so-called level playing field, Mr Barnier said: “We didn’t make any progress on these rules of economic and commercial fair play, despite choosing to focus...on issues that should have been more consensual, such as non-regression mechanisms on social and environmental standards, climate change, taxation or sustainable development.”

He noted fisheries, and free and fair competition, were “two essential elements of the new economic partnership we want to build”.

Mr Frost said at the end of last week’s talks: “For our part we are willing to work hard to see whether at least the outline of a balanced agreement, covering all issues, can be reached soon. Any such deal must of course accommodate the reality of the UK’s well-established position on the so-called ‘level playing field’, on fisheries, and the other difficult issues.”

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He talked about a “need to conclude this negotiation in good time to enable people and businesses to have certainty about the trading terms that will follow the end of the transition period at the end of this year, and, if necessary, to allow ratification of any agreements reached”.

Mr Barnier noted that “taking into account the time needed to ratify a deal, we would need a full legal text by 31 October at the latest, i.e. in less than five months”.

He declared: “We cannot continue like this forever. Especially given the United Kingdom’s continued refusal to extend the transition period.”

Mr Barnier noted that, “as President Ursula von der Leyen has said, we were always open to the possibility of a one or two-year extension, as foreseen in the withdrawal agreement”.

He added: “Our door remains open.”

The UK side seems far more closed to possibilities, appearing at times almost consumed with a perceived need to portray itself as a sovereign nation, which no one was challenging anyway.

UK Government Cabinet Office minister Penny Mordaunt, the paymaster general, declared yesterday that the political declaration agreed with the EU in October 2019 was not a treaty.

She talked about there being differences on both sides as to interpretation (which is putting it mildly).

Ms Mordaunt told Parliament: “The point we have emphasised in the last few days is that the EU cannot be the referee in that...We are a sovereign equal and the EU needs to accept that.”

She highlighted her belief that such acceptance would lead to progress in the UK-EU talks. However, this just seems like the same old rhetoric, going round in circles.

A transformation of Phil Connors’ attitude in Groundhog Day is crucial to breaking the loop, for that character, of day after day the same.

Round after round in the UK-EU talks, it seems that the same broad dance is repeated.

The UK tries to assert its sovereignty, which was never in question anyway. The EU notes that the benefits of access to free trade come with obligations. That you cannot have the same benefits as members of the single market without obligations. That seems fair enough.

It really looks like the UK Government needs to change its attitude.

Getting a deal always looked challenging in the timescale set, even before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

The UK Government now has the opportunity to take some time to reassess the Brexit folly, accepting the offer of an extension to the transition period, in the far more challenging world we are now in as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

The Conservative Brexiters need to wake up and smell the coffee.