By Gavin Mochan
The number of Scots claiming unemployment benefits has doubled year on year, which signals the extent impact of Covid-19 on the jobs market.
However, significant though the statistics may be – in July this year there were 222,000 claimants set against 109,000 for the same month last year - they point to yet worse to come.
READ MORE: Scottish job vacancies show need to match supply with new areas of demand
It suggests the figures are suppressed against a backdrop where people appear to be disengaged from the employment registration process amid the vagaries of the furlough system.
The strange flatness in unemployment figures initially seems surprising, however, to be unemployed someone has to say that don’t have a job and are currently looking for one so they are available for work.
I don’t think we can say what the complete causation is, but for whatever reason people are disengaged with the government on that or their statistics certainly indicate that.
It raises concerns over the horrors which are still to come when the furlough scheme ends.
That doubling year on year is quite extraordinary given that the full impact is yet to be discovered and won’t be until that furlough closure point in October.
My feeling is that some extension will be required for the hardest hit sectors like travel, tourism and hospitality.
Jamie Hepburn, the Scottish business minister, said: "These statistics cover a full three months of lockdown measures before some businesses started to reopen but still do not reflect the full impact of the pandemic on the labour market as the job retention scheme is continuing to help support many people remain in employment.
"We continue to call on the UK Government to extend the job retention scheme, particularly for those hardest-hit sectors, for example, travel, tourism and hospitality, which face significant long-term challenges likely to remain when the scheme ends in October."
The Scottish Government scheme for me doesn’t go far enough for me because it is going to focus quite heavily on apprenticeship and employability for young people, which we absolutely must do, but I’m concerned about the 30-50-year-old age group who actually have the biggest financial burden.
In terms of hiring demand, in July 20 there were 36,000 roles advertised across Scotland online, some 29,000 less than last year. The 44% decline is driven by obvious but some encouragement can be taken from July month on month increase on June of 14%.
However, it is the jobs under and around £25,000 that have been worst hit. The data shows that demand for jobs below this level dropped 50% year on year set against a more subdued drop of 10% for salaries over £43,000.
It makes sense for companies to hold on to their most highly skilled people, pending recovery, but for those on the breadline is outlook is bleak.
More needs to be done from government to re-skill or upskill this vulnerable group. There is the obvious concern we seem to have again and again that those who are at the biggest risk in society seem to bear the biggest brunt of these types of catastrophes.
Companies need to take on some of this responsibility too, looking at people’s learnability factors and make investments on what could be a valuable source of employees for the future.
Gavin Mochan is commercial director at s1jobs.
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