Analysis

By s1jobs

The curfew on bars, pubs and restaurants – which has them closing their doors at 10pm, rather than just calling last orders – has raised a great deal of alarm across the beleaguered hospitality sector.

Trade bodies UKHospitality, the newly-formed Scottish Hospitality Group and others immediately warned that more job losses and business failures were an inevitable result if further support was not forthcoming. This is no doubt why Chancellor Rishi Sunak agreed on Thursday to extend the temporary reduction in VAT payments by the sector from January 13 to March 31.

That – and news of a job support scheme to replace the furlough programme – has come as some relief to the industry, particularly as the possibility of a two-week “circuit break” lockdown still looms. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed that this remains a possibility during the October school holidays.

The initial easing of lockdown restrictions led to a notable rise in recruitment across Scotland’s hospitality sector, with s1jobs recording 181 per cent more vacancies posted so far in the third quarter when compared to Q2.

READ MORE: Pubs and restaurants warn of devastation after 10pm curfew announced

However, the number being advertised during lockdown was so low that this can’t really be taken as an indicator of exponential growth. Despite the “resurgence”, vacancies posted in July and August were 77% lower than in the same period a year ago.

Perhaps the saving grace for the industry – which has already shed thousands of jobs via recent announcements by Pizza Hut, Whitbread, The Restaurant Group and many more – will be the accompanying introduction of a nationwide ban on indoor household visits.

As colder and wetter weather arrives, hospitality venues will be the only indoor places where it’s allowed to meet up with friends and extended family. Then again, the 10pm curfew could backfire if people choose to ignore public health rules and gather at home afterwards.

READ MORE: National lockdown could have 'catastrophic' results for Scotland's hospitality industry

Either way, the curfew poses a difficult choice for venue owners who have to ask themselves whether it’s sustainable to operate under these conditions in the long run. Sales after 10pm are said to represent about half of all takings for many hospitality businesses.

Employees who find themselves on the redundancy end of this equation should carefully consider where their best prospects lie, and what transferrable skills they have to get there. The answers might not always be obvious, but a good starting point would be the growing employment opportunities in social care.