Analysis
By Gavin Mochan
Today’s release from the Office for National Statistics confirms what we already knew – the latest lockdown measures, which resemble the original restrictions of the first lockdown back in March, have negatively impacted employment.
Unemployment in the period from September to November increased to 4.4 per cent in Scotland. That’s up by 5,000 from the last release in December, taking the total to 123,000 people out of work.
But these results don’t cover the most recent months, and the reality is likely to be worse. In these circumstances, hiring demand gives a more accurate steer as to the here and now. So how does the demand for staff compare to the original lockdown? Well, much better.
In the last four weeks to the 25th of January, there were 26,617 vacancies advertised online across Scotland – 33% fewer than the same time last year. But in April 2020 the market shrank by 73% compared to the same period a year earlier, so the latest wrath of lockdown hasn’t been anywhere near as grim as its original counterpart.
This is something we should all be cautiously optimistic about, but that optimism will depend on the length and severity of current restrictions, as well as continuing support from governments in both Edinburgh and London.
Tomorrow’s budget from the Scottish Government will be, as the Federation of Small Businesses has put it, a “litmus test” for Ministers’ pledge to rebuild the economy. The FSB and other business organisations are looking for commitments to speed up the delivery of grant support, along with an extension to rate reliefs to keep down overhead costs for struggling firms.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has confirmed that he is reviewing support measures ahead of the UK Budget on March 3. Many are hoping for an extension to the furlough programme, which is due to close at the end of April.
For now though, it seems that businesses have and continue to adjust to operating in Covid conditions by advancing their hiring plans for 2021. While remaining steadfast for now, companies are looking to enhance their reaction times to future market threats.
The drive to recruit analysts and consultants to help firms navigate the market challenges induced by the pandemic has meant that hiring volumes for these skills has not waned. Relative to overall market declines, roles within accountancy and finance are still substantial, showing a reduction of only 17% in the last 4 weeks. Together, these two essential skill sets give business a front and rear-view window to the green and red lights coming their way.
Having said that, many other parts of the economy remain shut down. The forecast for retail and hospitality still looks dreich, with both trending around 60% down year-on-year.
Education, which had faired relatively well through much of 2020, has gone into what is hopefully a short-term hibernation following the closure of schools to all but the children of essential workers. In the last four weeks there have been 1,422 roles advertised, more than 1,000 fewer than the same time last year.
Gavin Mochan is Commercial Director at s1jobs
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