A RECENT spell of leave afforded the opportunity to take a few day trips to tourist destinations around Perthshire, Stirlingshire and Fife.

Evidence of visitors here on holiday from outside the UK was in short supply, but the accents of the foreign voices we did hear, for example at the fascinating historical village of Culross, had a soothing effect. It was at once a reminder of what the Scottish tourism and hospitality industry has sorely missed over the last 18 months, and a glimmer of hope for the future.

As this column has highlighted before, the upsurge in the number of UK citizens electing to holiday at home over the last two summers has provided a significant boost to an industry hit particularly hard by extensive lockdowns over the course of the pandemic.

Anyone who has tried to book a holiday in Scotland in recent times will have had their work cut out, as demand for the country’s most popular destinations has soared while regulations have made it a lot more difficult to travel overseas.

With the pandemic stubbornly persisting, it is expected that this demand will remain strong into next year, even though the easing of the UK testing regime around international travel may well encourage more citizens to holiday abroad.

Of course, the continued strength of the “staycation” trend is good news for Scottish hospitality and tourism operators. But the reality is a full recovery of this sector will remain out of reach until foreign holidaymakers start visiting Scotland again at pre-pandemic levels – and the profound challenges currently besetting the industry, from acute Brexit-sparked staff shortages and steep wage inflation to rising goods and energy prices, dissipate.

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The prospect of business events and corporate travel getting back to pre-pandemic levels also seems remote.

“We are now out of the main holiday season and the future outlook is not at all positive,” said Russell Imrie, managing director of Queensferry Hotels, owner of Keavil House Hotel in Dunfermline.

Citing soaring energy bills, payroll costs and the increase in hospitality VAT to 12.5 per cent (it had been temporarily cut to 5%, and will return to 20% in April next year), Mr Imrie added: “All this makes for a challenging and uncertain six months ahead as hotels will be less profitable.”

The challenges facing the hotel industry were captured by a major report published this week by PwC, the accountancy giant.

The firm’s latest hotels forecast concluded that the sector will likely continue to recover in 2022, but the extent of that revival will depend on factors outside its control. Such factors include the return of international visitors and the recovery of the events sector.

According to PwC’s forecasts, occupancy rates in London will have recovered to between 70% and 90% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022. For other parts of the UK, the outlook seems a touch brighter, with the report suggesting rates will have been restored to between 86% and 96% of the pre-Covid position within that timeframe.

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While any progress after such a fractured year-and- a-half is welcome, we will have been living with the pandemic for the best part of three years by the time 2022 comes to a close, underlining just how long it will take the industry to get over the upheaval Covid-19 has wreaked. And that is on the basis that there are no further setbacks in terms of the recovery from the pandemic.

“The hotel sector recovery has a long way to go,” said Sam Ward, UK hotels leader at PwC.

“In what could be described as a perfect storm, a raft of operational cost increases coincide with the increase in the rate of VAT next April.

“The ability for hoteliers to endure these costs and preserve profitability will present a challenge in markets where demand is weaker and more hotel rooms are available.”

One major event taking place in Glasgow in the coming weeks should, on the face of it, give the hotel industry a welcome boost.

The magnitude of an international conference on the scale of COP26 will drive up occupancy and room rates for many hotels, not just in Glasgow but in the surrounding areas and even Edinburgh as well.

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However, the preparations have been far from plain sailing. One hotelier told The Herald he has been far from impressed by the quality of project management on show from the UK Cabinet Office, the principal organiser – a view he said was shared by other businesses involved in supporting the summit. His comments came hard on the heels of a report in The Guardian on Monday which highlighted deep misgivings from major corporate sponsors of COP26 regarding what they perceive to be the poor organisation of the event.

Chris Trainer, owner of the Radisson Red hotel, located next to COP26 venue the Scottish Event Campus on Clydeside, said that the “co-operation and the management in the lead-up to the conference, considering the length of time that they have had to do it, has been very poor”.

Mr Trainer said: “It could have, should have, and needs to be organised a lot better. The pressure it is putting on businesses that are already toiling with the difficulties of not just the pandemic but the staff crisis and other issues affecting hospitality [is] not being recognised.”

Marc Crothall, chief executive of the Scottish Tourism Alliance, was critical of the UK Government for failing to address the labour shortage crisis ahead of such a major event.

Mr Crothall said operators in Glasgow are pleased the event will bring in much-needed revenue for businesses that have toiled through the pandemic.

But he noted: “In just a few days, the world’s spotlight will be shining again on our country, people and assets.

“It seems unthinkable for us to be in a position where many hospitality and tourism operators are struggling to staff their businesses sufficiently to deliver the high levels of service expected, which they take such pride in doing, particularly as we gear up to welcome the world to Scotland.”

Unthinkable though it may be, the hospitality and tourism industry is heading into COP26 with one hand tied behind its back – and no help at all from a UK Government that seems hell-bent on making life as difficult as possible.