A VISIT to one of Glasgow’s most famous pubs on Saturday had the effect of being transported back to a time before the pandemic began.

The Horseshoe Bar on Drury Street was the essence of conviviality as shoppers and football fans enjoyed an early afternoon drink or two in the company of friends, with the proximity of the festive season only adding to the warmth of the atmosphere.

The scene offered a welcome glimpse into a world beyond the endless talk of vaccine boosters and lateral flow tests that has come to dominate our daily lives. But as we know only too well, the spectre of coronavirus continues to loom.

Despite the new threat posed by the Omicron variant, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and senior UK Government Ministers insist there is no need for people to cancel their Christmas parties. However, the impact of Omicron is already being felt in the hospitality sector.

Trade body UKHospitality revealed that anecdotal evidence it has gathered within the industry shows that many festive bookings have been cancelled in “direct response to Omicron’s emergence”.

It has compounded the difficulties that were already being faced by operators, still reeling from the effects of protracted lockdowns and Covid restrictions, as the crucial festive season approaches.

A survey commissioned by UKHospitality, which canvassed the views of companies representing tens of thousands of outlets, found that festive bookings were already more than 30 per cent below expectations for this time of year before Omicron had even reared its head.

While the organisation noted that more recent evidence suggests the pace of cancellations has slowed, the emergence of Omicron is nonetheless a major blow to an industry that is fighting desperately to get back on its feet.

“The full range of hospitality venues across the UK would usually be experiencing their annual bookings bonanza at this time of year, but it hadn’t materialised even before Omicron was first detected,” UKHospitality said in a joint statement with the British Institute of Innkeeping, and the British Beer & Pub Association.

The industry is striving to be upbeat. In a news release published on Thursday, UKHospitality quoted Boris Johnson as it urged consumers not to cancel their Christmas events. Instead, it called on people “to carry on and enjoy their festive season parties, safe in the knowledge that hospitality venues are doing everything they can to ensure people have a safe and fun Christmas and New Year”.

But with cases of Omicron on the rise, and uncertainty over the danger posed by the variant, not everyone will be willing to take that chance.

Part of the problem appears to stem from mixed messaging in terms of the Omicron threat, as suggested by a recent report in the Financial Times. When on one hand you have the Prime Minister insisting that people carry on partying, while on the other hand some scientists are encouraging restraint over socialising, what is the correct course of action for consumers to take?

Ultimately, individuals will be guided by their own circumstances and instincts, and their perception of the risk Omicron presents, based on the information they have to hand. Many may take the view that they have already sacrificed enough to coronavirus following the protracted lockdowns of 2020 and 2021, and will be keen to pursue the festivities with gusto having seen their Christmas parties cancelled last year (unless they were working in 10 Downing Street).

But there will inevitably be consumers and indeed company owners who will be considerably more circumspect. Indeed, according to the report in the FT, major organisations such as the BBC and NHS Providers have asked their employees to avoid large gatherings.

With opinion inevitably split on the issue, the hospitality industry looks destined to lose out to some degree in commercial terms – at precisely the time it was banking on a strong festive season.

While UKHospitality seized upon last week’s comments from the World Health Organisation that cases of Omicron were “mild”, it seems there is still much to learn about the new variant, including the extent to which the UK population will be protected by existing vaccines.

There was positive news on Friday when the results of a trial signalled that booster jabs greatly improve the body’s defences against Covid. The trial raised hopes that a third dose could provide significant protection against Omicron, particularly when the booster was provided by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. It is understood the trial informed the decision by the UK Government to throw its weight behind a mass booster campaign.

With Christmas upon us, though, it is likely that the festive season will come and go before experts can be truly definitive about the Omicron threat. So unless governments decide to impose further restrictions in the coming weeks, people will have to make their own decisions on whether to press ahead with their festive plans. And that could mean a loss of business if the more cautious among us decide to cancel our Christmas nights out in bars, restaurants and hotels.

If that is the case, such cancellations would only add to the mounting issues facing the industry as it struggles to emerge from coronavirus.

The challenges were underlined in recent results from Mitchells & Butlers, the pub giant that owns The Horseshoe Bar. Although Mitchells & Butlers said it had returned to sales growth in like-for-like terms since coronavirus restrictions ended on July 19, both in the period to the end of its financial year on September 25 and in the first eight weeks of its financial year, it warned of “cost headwinds” in the shape of soaring energy bills and employment costs. Those headwinds will be joined in April by the return of the 20% level of VAT that is applied to the industry – a levy that was temporarily lowered to help operators weather the storm of coronavirus – and the possible end of relief from business rates.

Hospitality operators are continuing to deal with an acute labour shortage that shows no sign of easing, food and drink inflation sparked by global supply chain bottlenecks, and the challenge of servicing the mountain of extra debt taken on to ensure their survival throughout lockdown and periods of trading restrictions. There are also fears that many businesses will ultimately be tipped over the edge when rents deferred by landlords eventually fall due.

For the hospitality industry, the perfect Christmas gift would have been a season of packed pubs and restaurants. Instead, all it has been given is Omicron and a fresh wave of uncertainty.