Early reports from sheep-scanning operators indicate there are more barren ewes in the hills and uplands as a result of reduced ram libido caused by the atrocious weather in late autumn.
Peebles-based Jim Watson scans 60,000 ewes and reckons that normally 5% or 6% of the Blackface ewes in his run are barren. This year, he says the figure is nearly 10%.
"I put that down to the bad weather. The problem is greater where Blueface Leicester tups were being used. They don't take to cold, wet weather and spend a lot of time sheltering. It's not as if there was any shortage of grass last backend," he said.
Duncan Kennedy, of Dumfries-based Progressive Animal Services, scans 160,000 with his partner Bruce Gallacher and also reports there are more barren Blackfaces this year.
In common with Jim Watson, he found that earlier lambing mule ewes are carrying a heavy crop of lambs with a lot of triplets, but that the biggest failures have been among Blackfaces tupped with Leicesters.
"Some of my clients have as many as 22% barren this year. Pure-bred Blackfaces on the higher ground aren't quite so bad," he said.
He puts the disappointing results down to a lack of manpower as well as the weather conditions. "Some of my clients told me they were worried that there were a lot of barren ewes this year as they had seen a lot returning to the tups.
"As it turned out, those clients had good results because they had identified the problem early and done something about it.
"Observation and good stockmanship had saved the day because they had changed the tups and put fresh ones out to their ewes. Unusually, those ewes that got in-lamb after a second service are carrying a lot of twins because of the extra grass late on in the season.
"The big disappointments tend to have been where individuals have been trying to look after too many sheep and hadn't time to observe them carefully."
The predicted poor lambing for the uplands comes at a time when breeding ewes are being sold off the hills at an unprecedented rate due to government environmental policies and low lamb prices. The latest census shows a further decline of 2.8% following a 15% reduction over the past five years.
Meanwhile, Scotland's chief medical officer Harry Burns has advised that pregnant women should avoid close contact with sheep during the lambing season.
In particular, they should not help to lamb or milk ewes, and should avoid contact with aborted or new-born lambs or with the afterbirth. Wherever possible, they should avoid handling clothing, boots and other items that have come into contact with ewes or lambs. If they cannot avoid such contact, they should wear rubber gloves.
Outlining the danger of infections being passed on, Burns said: "Pregnant women who come into close contact with sheep during lambing may be risking their health and the health of their unborn child."
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