What now for the LibDems?

Nick Clegg’s decision to go into coalition with the Conservatives at Westminster, and his volte face on tuition fees, put the black spot on Scott & Co.

The party started the campaign with 16 MSPs, and ended it with just five. To compound the misery, Scott learned the scale of the rout on his 45th birthday.

He had vainly tried to argue that his LibDems were different from those south of the Border because of the party’s federalist structure. It was true, but it was also a uselessly geeky defence when faced with visceral voter rage.

Scott then tried to change tack, spouting off about the Conservatives to try and put some distance between himself and the Tories, and between him and the Westminster LibDems. But it wouldn’t fly. Even though Clegg was kept off LibDem leaflets in favour of Scottish MPs such as Charles Kennedy, the voters knew Scott and Clegg ultimately marched under the same banner.

In desperation, some LibDems convinced themselves there was a “reverse Clegg” effect at work: just as the LibDems peaked sharply after the leaders’ debates then gradually declined towards polling day at the General Election, perhaps the LibDem fall in the polls was equally exaggerated and temporary, and support would be normal by May 5.

But the Clegg-phobia was overwhelming – as it was in the English local elections the same day, when the LibDems lost almost 700 of 1700 councillors, as well as the vote on the AV referendum.

The impact on Scott’s party was brutal. Four years ago, the Scottish LibDems won 16.2% of the constituency vote and 11.3% of the list vote, ending up with 16 MSPs (11 in constituencies and five from the lists).

On Thursday, something remarkable happened: the LibDem vote simply sheered away. The party lost all nine of its constituency seats on the mainland, leaving just Scott in Shetland and Liam McArthur in Orkney – who was arguably only saved by an anti-wind farm campaigner taking a quarter of the votes.

In the capital, the party not only missed its key target of Edinburgh Central, it was pushed into third place by an unexpected SNP victory.

The SNP also won Edinburgh Western, where it had been second, and Edinburgh Southern, where it had started fourth. In Aberdeen South – once the seat of former Scottish LIbDem leader Nicol Stephen – the party suffered an 18% fall in its vote and a 15.8% swing to the SNP.

Scott’s party scrambled back with three MSPs from the regional lists, but huge swathes of the country were left completely devoid of LibDem MSPs: Central Scotland, Glasgow, Lothians, West of Scotland (where former minister Ross Finnie was a casualty), and – extraordinarily given the party’s traditional stronghold there – the Islands and mainland of the Highlands.

It even lost the LibDem redoubt of Fife North East, the Holyrood equivalent of the Westminster seat held by former leader Sir Menzies Campbell. The LibDem candidate there, former MSP Iain Smith, was so upset he bolted away from the media after the result was announced.

Overall, the party’s vote slumped below half its 2007 level: down 6.1 percentage points to 5.2% on the lists, and down 8.2 points to 7.9% in constituencies. It was a crushing defeat – and led directly to the SNP’s stunning win, as Alex Salmond’s party sucked up the disaffected voters.

Sir David Steel, a former LibDem leader and former presiding officer, said: “It was quite clear that the electorate have delivered cruel and collective punishment to the party in Scotland because of the coalition in the south. The LibDem vote in Scotland has gone just gone lock, stock and barrel over to the SNP.”

This shift suggested the LibDems never had much of a core vote at all, but instead won MSPs thanks to a loose assembly of tactical and protest votes.

During the campaign, Scott had said he was “confident” of holding the seats he had, and dismissed predictions of falling to single figures as inconceivable – “I don’t want to go backwards so I’m not going to talk about it,” he told the Sunday Herald.

But given the thrashing handed to his party, it was equally inconceivable that he could remain leader – especially after Iain Gray said on Thursday afternoon that he would step down as Labour leader in the autumn after the loss of a relatively minor nine MSPs.

When he announced his resignation yesterday, Scott admitted the result had been a “disastrous” one.

Sir Menzies Campbell, Scott’s mentor, said: “I’ve no doubt that after the stresses and strains of the campaign he’s in need of a good rest.”

But Campbell rejected calls for the LibDems in Scotland to make a fundamental break from the UK party. He said: “We need to rebuild from the ground up, brick by brick, emphasising those traditions and qualities which Liberal Democrats have always stood for: the importance of ensuring people have the greatest influence over their own lives.

“The strength of the Liberal tradition in Scotland, even if somewhat bruised today, will ensure that Scots play a significant role in the Liberal Democrat party as a whole.”

Scott’s resignation means he now has the chance to stand for the position of Presiding Officer at Holyrood when nominations open this week. The idea was originally floated by those close to him during the campaign as a form of gallows humour, but now looks a real possibility.

However, it would be a further blow to his party, as he would have to cut his political ties to take up the politically neutral post, reducing the LibDems to just four MSPs.

That would take the party below the five-MSP threshold needed for a place on the parliamentary bureau, which organises business at Holyrood.

But with his hopes of becoming a minister again trashed by his colleagues in London, Scott might this week be more concerned with number one.