There was no clearer sign of continuing US involvement in Afghanistan than the announcement on Friday that two Special Forces soldiers had been killed during last week’s operations in northern Helmand which saw Taliban forces retake the important town of Musa Qala. To make matters worse the US casualties were reported to have been gunned down at a road block by men wearing Afghan army uniforms. It is still unclear if this was an “insider attack” or a case of Taliban fighters wearing government uniforms.
However, the identity and purpose of the US casualties is no secret. According to US defence sources the two men had been acting as forward air controllers during the air strikes which had been ordered in an attempt to halt the Taliban advance. During a 24 hour period US strike aircraft flew nine combat missions as part of Operation Resolute Support, the Nato operation to support and train the Afghan armed forces.
Their deaths and the presence of the US warplanes in the skies above Helmand are a grim reminder that despite last year’s withdrawal of 120,000 Nato troops from Afghanistan the battle against the Taliban continues and western military assets are still deeply involved in it. It is also a necessary reminder that in this first year of operating alone the Afghan army is hard pushed to face an enemy which is still active and still determined to gain ground against the forces representing President Ashraf Ghani.
As a result of last week’s gains the question is now being asked in western military circles: can these forces survive if President Barack Obama makes good his promise to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan during the course of next year? From last week’s evidence the omens are not good as the Afghan army units in northern Helmand offered only weak resistance in the face of the Taliban attacks on the key towns of Musa Qala, Sangin, Nowzad and Kajaki.
If that were to be replicated in any other of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces Ghani’s future would not be looking good this weekend but across the country all provincial capitals remain in government hands and General Mohammad Ayoub Salangi, Afghanistan’s deputy minister of interior for security, was able to claim that there was no cause for alarm. “The enemy had big plans for the year. They were waiting for the pull-out of coalition forces and had hoped to capture several districts and even provinces,” he said last week. “They didn’t succeed. Afghan security forces are stronger and more committed than ever.”
In his official position the general could not have done other than to exhibit confidence in his army but there are still concerns about the fragility exhibited by the Afghan army last week. Critics were quick to point the resemblance with the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 when he Afghan government managed to survive for three years before finally succumbing to a massive offensive in the spring of 1992. Comparisons have also been made with Iraq which quickly slumped back into confrontation after the US withdrew it forces in 2011.
As things stand the Afghan security forces are well equipped and have received ample training but they are facing a determined enemy who feel that they have nothing to lose from fighting and will not gain anything through peace negotiations. Casualties have also been rising and it is becoming increasingly difficult to find suitably trained replacements. If at any point the US and its allies, notably the UK, were to lose interest in the conflict and withdraw funding for training and equipment Ghani’s government could find itself in a difficult position. Matters have not been helped by internal discord in Kabul where Ghani has failed to appoint a new defence minister. The situation has not been helped by the internal dissension within the Taliban which was triggered by the announcement of the death of its leader Mullah Omar and was followed by a power struggle over the appointment of his nominated successor Mullah Akhtar Mansour. With indecision gripping both sides it is extremely unlikely that the stalled peace talks will be resumed.
Hopes for reviving a planned second round of talks have faded in recent weeks, with Afghanistan government sources saying they are unwilling to include Pakistan as the broker. The Taliban, too, have gone cold on peace talks as they feel that a negotiated settlement will not achieve their long-term aims and that more can be done by taking the war back to the Afghan army. Last week’s success in Musa Qala will only have given added substance to that theory.
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