MILLIONS of current and future pensioners will be worse off by several thousand pounds if Britain left the European Union, the Treasury has claimed.
Just two hours before so-called purdah – when the UK Government machine is unable to put out fresh lines in the referendum debate – the Treasury, in its final piece of analysis, said rising inflation, financial market turmoil and a fall in asset prices would all hit pensioners’ savings, incomes and wealth in the aftermath of a Brexit vote on June 23.
The warning comes less than 24 hours after a 8,650-strong poll of over-50s suggested that the grey vote in Scotland could swing the referendum poll for the Remain camp as 56 per cent of Scots favoured staying in the EU while 31 per cent backed Leave. This contrasted sharply with opinion in England, where the respective split was 40/47.
The Treasury analysis calculated that the total assets held by those aged over 65 would drop by £170 billion in the event of a more moderate shock and by as much as £300bn in a more severe one.
For a person aged over 65 with the median portfolio of housing and non-pension assets the loss in wealth was estimated to be around £18,000 in the shock scenario and around £32,000 in the severe shock scenario.
Those expecting to retire around 2030 – today’s 50- to 55-year-olds – would see a reduction in their pension wealth in retirement, noted George Osborne’s department.
It explained that both pension contributions and investment returns would be smaller because wages would be lower and companies’ profits and dividends would fall.
The 12 million people in the UK who received the basic state pension would see higher inflation erode the real value of the increases they can expect, it said.
“It’s important pensioners understand what’s at stake for them too on June 23,” stressed the chancellor.
“Pensioners who have worked hard all their lives deserve dignity, security and certainty in retirement. That’s what we all hope for and what any responsible government should seek to provide.
“As chancellor, I feel very strongly that my first responsibility is for people’s jobs, livelihoods and living standards. I couldn’t recommend something that we know would put all that at risk,” declared Mr Osborne.
Baroness Altmann, the pensions minister, added that Brexit would “put all the hard work we’ve done to reform and improve pensions in jeopardy, in a self-defeating, pointless and unnecessary way”.
She added: “If we leave the EU, it is simply not credible to suggest that pensioners or pensions will benefit.”
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