It was indicative that when President Vladimir Putin sent a message of congratulation to Donald Trump he did it the old-fashioned way – by telegram. After evidence had surfaced of Russian interference in the US election by way of cyberspace attacks Putin was clearly taking no chances. He had no need to be concerned because of all the world leaders he has benefitted most from Trump’s triumph. Not only is it probable that east-west relations will improve from their current “critical” state (Putin’s description) but the odds are that the change of occupant at the White House will encourage European right-of-centre parties to fancy their chances at forthcoming elections in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, France and Germany.

All this threatened upheaval is to Putin’s advantage as he has long wanted to see cracks appearing in European unity – one reason why he welcomed the UK’s decision to leave the EU. No wonder that the Duma, the Russian parliament broke into a round of applause when they assembled last Wednesday morning. Later in the day Putin emphasised that he would not be going cap in hand to Washington but would be approaching the revived relationship from a position of strength, as a first amongst equals.

He has good reason for taking that stance. During the election campaign Trump praised Putin as a strong leader with whom he could do business and he also suggested that the US could review its membership of Nato until such time as other member states agree to increase their defence expenditure. In an ideal world Putin would like to see the US drop its sanctions on Russia for its annexation of Crimea and its involvement in the continuing war in eastern Ukraine. This is not mere tokenism as the sanctions have seen a drop in oil and gas revenues all to Moscow’s economic disadvantage.

However, in the short term this is unlikely to happen. The EU will not agree to any change in the sanctions regime and it is unlikely that Trump will be able to carry Congress with him even though it is controlled by the Republicans. All that Trump can hope for at this stage is to change US policy from the Obama administration’s insistence on the need to improve human rights in Russia, to one of resetting US policy in the direction of business realities so that a deal can be cut. As analyst Dmitri Trenin director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre put it a change of direction would certainly suit Putin: “Trump’s approach has a better chance of succeeding, and certainly an approach that is overly loaded with morals and values does not get you anywhere with the Kremlin.”

The relationship with Moscow will be one of Trump’s first concerns but as for the rest of Europe he and Putin will have to await the outcome of the raft of elections which take place next year. In the wake of Trump’s electoral victory there is a growing perception amongst Europe’s right-wing parties that their moment has arrived and that they can build on the growing disaffection with big business and centrist governments which seems to have underpinned his success. Not since the aftermath of the Second World War has there been such agitation for the political and economic landscape of Europe to be changed - suddenly to support a populist leader is not a vote wasted but possibly a vote gained.

The mood was expressed by Nicholas Bray the secretary-general of France’s National Front who took to the air waves to claim that what has taken place in the US could also happen in France next spring, that masses of ordinary people felt “betrayed by the elites” and wanted radical change. He went on to assert that there were other similarities between Trump supporters and those who back Marine Le Pen, the National Front’s leader, namely rejecting multi-culturalism, ending globalisation and free trade, and strengthening national borders. Le Pen also wants to go further by removing France from the EU and Nato, and while to date she has not been considered a realistic challenger for the presidency her supporters now believe that she can at least survive the first round of voting and emerge as a contender in the vital second round in May 2017.

In Germany, Frauke Petry, leader of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) was also quick off the mark to congratulate Trump, no doubt hoping that some of his stardust would help her in her own bid for power next year. “This night changes the USA, Europe and the world!” she tweeted when the US result was known. “Americans have chosen a new beginning free of corruption and sleaze.” Her exultation was matched by Geert Wilders in the Netherlands who could emerge as the deal-maker in his country’s elections next year. He called Trump’s win the beginning of a “patriotic spring” in Europe and while that is clearly an exaggeration it is also true that his Party for Freedom is currently topping the polls.

Much will become clearer next month when the re-run of the Austrian presidential election takes place. If, as expected, the vote goes to the Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer he will become Europe’s first far-right head of state in Europe and already supporters such as party leader Heinz-Christian Stracher are saying that the US will be part of that equation because Trump has shown that “the political left and the aloof and sleazy establishment are being punished by voters and voted out of various decision-making positions.”

China and South-East Asia

Trump’s first foray into diplomatic affairs will take place this week when he travels to Tokyo for talks with Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and the outcome will provide some important clues about the president-elect’s policy in the Pacific. During the election campaign Trump threatened to cut back the US military presence in Japan and South Korea unless both countries made greater financial contributions especially for the presence of the US nuclear umbrella. Ahead of the meeting Abe insisted that “we will try to work together” and it seems unlikely that Trump will try to change course while North Korea threatens to destabilise the region further by continuing missile tests and experimenting with ever larger nuclear weapons. So far the only response from North Korea came in a statement at the end of the week warning Washington that it was an “outdated illusion” to hope that the country would give up its nuclear weapons.

That leaves China as the biggest political conundrum and, again, it was indicative how the Chinese leader President Xi Jinping reacted to the news of Trump’s election. Although there is the danger of a trade war breaking out between the two countries – Trump has threatened to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports – the Beijing leadership has chosen to approach the change from a position of strength. They know that any hike in taxes on imported goods will increase prices and that will affect American consumers especially poorer ones. That gives the Chinese some leverage and they intend to use it. Like Putin, President Xi has insisted that there will be “mutual respect” in his dealings and any problems can be resolved in “a constructive way”.

The Chinese leadership also hopes that Trump will take a softer line on human rights and as a businessman will put trading links first. At a time when China has assertive territorial ambitions in the South China Sea capable of upsetting the regional strategic equilibrium that could have a knock-on effect in the way which the two countries co-exist during the Trump presidency. Whereas the Obama administration pinned its policy on a Trans Pacific Partnership composed of 12 nations, a proposal disliked in Beijing as it smacks of US attempts to control the region, Trump’s instincts are more isolationist.

If so that could work in China’s favour by giving them more freedom on the open market. They also know that Trump promised electors that he would be tough on trade deals with China and would do everything to protect US interests, claiming that American jobs had been unfairly “stolen” by the Chinese. But they also know that US presidential candidates tend to talk tough on China in the hustings and then change their tune when they reach the White House. In this case the main problem is that there is no past record to analyse as Trump has never held public office and has little or no experience of China. All that exists is the rhetoric he employed while running for office and that remains unhelpful as his language rarely strayed from the venomous, especially with regard to his allegation that the country was a manipulator of the US dollar.

“We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country,” Trump said of China’s trade policies while speaking at the hustings in Maine earlier this year. “It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world!”