So now we know. There is to be no second independence referendum – at least until there is one. “If the UK Government delivers on the priorities that the Scottish Government wants – the safeguards for us in Europe – then we would not need to go ahead with a referendum.” Not Nicola Sturgeon on the BBC yesterday, but her deputy Angus Robertson last October.
After Mr Robertson spoke, the SNP quickly added he only meant a Brexit-related referendum. Referendums hung on other pegs are still available. Mr Robertson’s comments gathered some modest coverage, but were quickly forgotten. They certainly didn’t get the showbiz treatment given to the First Minister’s updated version on Good Morning Scotland yesterday. But it’s always more compelling when the boss speaks. There are no minions to blame if things go wrong.
Ms Sturgeon was referring to her desire for a UK-wide soft Brexit, and failing that a soft Brexit for Scotland to keep it in the EU single market, and failing that a second referendum. It’s the proposal she issued before Christmas in the Scotland’s Place in Europe paper.
“I’m in a sense willing to put aside my preferred option of independence in the EU to see if we can explore a consensus and compromise option,” she said. Pressed on the timescale, she said it was “in terms of the timescale of Brexit”. That seems clear enough. Like Mr Robertson, she is offering to park independence to see if the Scottish and UK governments can strike a deal on Brexit. She is also clear she has not given up on independence and will campaign for it again if she does not get the deal she wants.
But is it clear? Brexit is bedevilled with definition problems, "Brexit means Brexit" being the most gruesome example. Ms Sturgeon regularly pours scorn on the phrase, so Theresa May surely has a right to ask what is meant by “put aside”. Until now the SNP has run a twin track approach to Brexit, saying it is willing to compromise on a deal while also laying the ground for a second referendum on independence. It ran a national opinion survey, issued draft legislation and set up a Growth Commission to solve the knotty economic and currency questions left over from 2014.
Will these instruments now be put aside? Just last week, the SNP leadership urged people to respond to a consultation on the draft referendum bill. Will this be shelved? Will the Growth Commission be mothballed? Will the national survey results be locked away and ignored? Will the SNP refrain from mentioning independence at their conference in March, and keep it out their leaflets in May’s local elections? If the answer, as I suspect, is No to all of the above, then in what meaningful sense is the referendum being put aside?
The opposition parties suspect wily Ms Sturgeon is using the Brexit process as a cover story, a canny way to walk her party back from a referendum she fears would lose. Perhaps. There may be a simpler reason. The SNP is often credited with mythical tactical powers. Politics is three-dimensional chess and Alex Salmond and Ms Sturgeon are its grandmasters, we are told. In fact, like every other party, the SNP often gets itself in muddle.
When she launched Scotland’s Place in Europe, Ms Sturgeon said a second referendum remained “highly likely”. Now it is being “put aside”. It cannot be both. She said yesterday it was off the table “in terms of the timescale of Brexit”. That suggests until spring 2019, but could mean years longer if the transition phase in included. Yet introducing the draft referendum bill, she said that if it was clear only independence could protect Scotland’s interests, voters must consider the question “before the UK leaves the EU”. Which is it?
Then there’s the riddle of the SNP’s founding goal becoming subordinate to membership of the EU single market. Independence used to be imperative. Now it seems to be an option, to be pursued or not depending on other priorities. It may be a temporary phenomenon, but it’s a strange philosophical shift all the same. Independence cannot “transcend” all other issues, as Ms Sturgeon said last year, while itself being transcended by Europe.
Politics is messy, of course. Most parties are flummoxed by Brexit. The SNP is no different. The mistake for Ms Sturgeon’s party would be to believe it is winning the Brexit game hands down. Instead, cracks are showing. Westminster will spot them, making it less inclined to bend to Ms Sturgeon’s demands. That second referendum may not be put aside very long.
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