The path to Brexit remains strewn with obstacles. Yet the direction of travel is fairly clear. The UK is heading towards a hard, Canada-style Brexit, that will be very damaging to trade and future growth. This will be cushioned partially by a short transition until the end of 2020.

There are growing calls for a further EU referendum on the deal – something that polls suggest many support (though there is no majority for a repeat referendum on the same question). But apart from the LibDems, political support for this is lacking.

Overall, the negotiations have looked increasingly shambolic and one-sided in the last year. There’s been a pattern of bluster from the UK government, followed by eventually going along with whatever approach the EU sets out.

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Last summer, the UK government predicted a big row with Brussels to ensure trade talks started in parallel with divorce discussions on money, citizens and Northern Ireland.The EU said no; the UK fell into place. It was bluster anyway since Theresa May only set out a month ago the sort of ambitious free trade deal she wanted.

The EU itself changed the sequencing of talks: initially it was to be the divorce issues, then trade, then transition (since you need to know what you’re transitioning to). But as the clock ticked, and May struggled to find a united cabinet position, Brussels decided a status quo transition was the best solution and could be sorted out rapidly. That leave trade talks finally beginning as of now.

Countdown to Brexit: The key issues you need to know

The UK has given in on the EU’s demands on EU citizens’ rights in the UK after Brexit. It will pay a £35-39 billion divorce bill. Last December, it agreed there would be no hard border in Ireland followed by shock and outrage when the EU suggested in February a hard border in the Irish Sea instead – the UK’s alternative proposal is awaited.

Uncertainty lies ahead. Will the DUP will go along with whatever is agreed on the Irish border? An amendment to the trade bill keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU could pass in Westminster – May’s government could surely not accept that. Might an early election transpire in that case – or if the final withdrawal agreement was rejected in the Commons?

Brexit Analysis: Almost everything remains to be decided

The UK is heading out of the EU in one year’s time. But whether the government will trip up before then remains an open question.

Kirsty Hughes, Director, Scottish Centre on European Relations