David Pratt: Tensions with Russia grow in Ukraine

While both events might at face value appear unrelated, each are manifestations of a country still struggling for its political identity and acrimonious relationship with its giant Russian neighbour. 

For many Ukrainians the recent opening of a fried chicken restaurant in a landmark building that played a central role in the 2013/14 revolution was an insult too far. 

That the restaurant opened on the very same day people marked the fifth anniversary of what is sometimes known as the Euromaidan Revolution was insensitive enough.

That it was housed in a building that played a central role in events and where snipers and police killed dozens of people only added to the sense of grievance. Feelings about the revolution still remain raw in Kiev.

Angry as some were, of course, all this was minor stuff compared to events off the country’s coast in the Sea of Azov where Ukrainian and Russian forces clashed a few days ago.

This has given rise to a period of martial law the Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko says is aimed at preventing an all-out Russian invasion. 

READ MORE: Europe must not remain silent on eastern Ukraine’s ‘forgotten war’

A Ukrainian police officer walks near his position at the checkpoint in Berdyansk, south coast of Azov sea. Pic: AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka.

For most people here in the UK who remain fixated by Brexit, the escalation 
of Russia-Ukraine tensions and the potentially catastrophic dangers that come with it, have not been ringing alarm bells quite the way they should. 

So just how worried should we be about this latest sabre rattling by both sides?
The short answer is lots – for there’s no doubt that this is the most serious development since Moscow’s annexing of Crimea in 2014. 

To begin with, this is the first time that Russia has openly acknowledged and admitted firing on Ukrainian forces.

As the Ukrainian political analyst and activist Taras Berezovets highlighted the other day: “It’s the first time that the Russian military has attacked Ukrainian armed forces under Russian flags. It’s not little green men any more. It’s an open act of aggression.”

Unlike in past confrontations, this time around there are no Russian proxies or volunteers, but a case of Moscow’s own armed forces acting quite openly.

The timing, too, when seen from both Moscow’s and Kiev’s respective positions is also very significant and worthy of greater attention.

Admittedly, President Poroshenko’s move in seeking approval from Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, to introduce a state of martial law in Ukraine for 60 days was something many seasoned observers say they did not see coming. 

READ MORE: Russia 'fires on and seizes' Ukrainian ships in Black Sea

Ukrainian nationalists from National Corps party burn flares during a rally in front the Parliament in Kiev. Pic: STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

With elections in Ukraine only four months away and Mr Poroshenko’s ratings having taken a bashing, critics say it was in his interest to postpone the election, something that full implementation of martial law would have enabled him to do given that under Ukrainian law no election or official campaign can take place during such an emergency period.

As it is, what has now transpired is what some observers point to as a check on presidential power.

After a heated debate the Ukrainian parliament voted to go ahead with martial law but only for 30 days instead of 60, which will not affect or delay the ballot on March 31 next year.

The parliament also made clear the implementation of martial law will only be in effect in 10 regions, five bordering Russian territory, two bordering Moldova’s breakaway Trans-Dniester region where Russian troops are stationed, and three on the Black Sea/Sea of Azov coast.

READ MORE: Russian spies caught red-handed in botched operation​

Ukraine government forces stand by a tank on a front line position east of the Sea of Azov port city Mariupo. Pic:AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda.

Seen from Moscow’s perspective the timing over the latest escalation is significant too. Few doubt Russian President Vladimir Putin was determined to do all he could to disrupt the March ballot. 

Indeed, had Mr Poroshenko succeeded in his full martial law period, effectively postponing the elections, it doubtless would have been music to the Kremlin’s ears. 

Mr Putin’s action too in deepening the crisis with Ukraine may well have as much to do with alleviating political pressure on him at home as it does in heaping it on Mr Poroshenko.

Right now Russia’s economy is stuck in the midst of long-term stagnation, while pension reform and a plan to raise the retirement age has proved unpopular with voters.

The rare defeat of Kremlin-backed candidates in recent regional elections coinciding also with a slump in Mr Putin’s poll ratings signal rising social discontent among Russians.

In such a situation it would not be the first time that provoking an international crisis might improve Mr Putin’s domestic support.

All of which is not to suggest that the latest crisis does not have the potential to escalate further militarily. 

Ukranian troops on the move near the Sea of Azov. Pic: AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda.

While neither side has much to gain from re-igniting the full-on shooting war of 2014 and 2015, efforts by both sides to exploit the crisis for political gain could very easily slide out of control.

On the one hand, Moscow’s continued flexing of its territorial and military muscle only fans the flames of revanchism in Ukraine. 

In Ukraine itself, meanwhile, the list of grievances remains long. Crimea remains occupied, and the West has quietly acquiesced to this fact by making sure that existing sanctions it imposes are primarily tied to advances in the Minsk process over Donbass, not Crimea.

What little advance in the Minsk framework there is too suits Russian interests, but remains a thorn in Ukraine’s side, where the Minsk process is seen as illegitimate to begin with.

 Both sides continue to beef up their military forces and weaponry on the ground. While Washington has supplied anti-tank Javelin launchers to the Ukrainians, the Russian Defence Ministry said it had “begun testing the readiness of formations and military units of the Southern Military District.”

United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres this week urged both sides to use “maximum restraint” and to take steps without delay to contain the recent incident in the Sea of Azov and reduce tensions.

For now, though, neither Moscow nor Kiev appears to be listening and both sides remain seemingly hell-bent on talking and acting tough.

Brexit could yet be the least of Europe’s worries should things take a turn for the worst in the East.