AS more confusion emerged over Brexit and Commons procedure yesterday, it is clear that ministers, MPs and, possibly, Speaker Bercow are all set for further parliamentary flashpoints throughout a fraught January.
On Monday, it is expected the much-anticipated “exchange of letters,” setting out the further clarifications from Brussels, will take place. But no one is really expecting a lifeline will be thrown to save Theresa May’s Plan from parliamentary oblivion.
The Government machine, which had refused to even contemplate defeat in next Tuesday’s vote, is talking more and more about the way forward once it happens.
Thanks to the passing of the Grieve amendment, Mrs May will have to come back within three sitting days to tell the House what her Plan B is. Given next Friday is a non-sitting day, this is likely to mean she will make her statement on Monday January 21.
No 10 helpfully pointed out that the Grieve amendment did not stipulate when a debate and vote on Plan B should happen. But it stressed the Government would ensure it took place “quickly” ie later in the same week.
Initially Downing St suggested its interpretation pointed to a 90-minute debate. MPs blanched at so short a time for debate. Julian Smith, the Chief Whip, swiftly intervened to make clear "no decision" had been made on the length of the debate. Six hours at least is a good guess.
This week, David Mundell, the Scottish Secretary, raised the prospect of MPs, having rejected the PM's plan, voting on the “same deal” again after a period of quiet reflection. But the same result is still likely to happen.
The Speaker, having already played a starring role in the Brexit psychodrama, is set for another moment in the limelight when he decides the Government motion on Plan B is - amendable. To put it another way, Parliament will be in control. Options to extend Article 50 or even hold a People’s Vote could be put forward.
Then, of course, amid all of this, there is the little matter of a Labour confidence vote.
While it was initially suggested it would take place “immediately” after Mrs May’s initial plan were voted down, Jeremy Corbyn has since made clear it will happen at the optimal moment Labour thinks it could win it. TBC.
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