IF anyone thought Alex Salmond would settle into self-satisfied retirement following his victory over the Scottish Government in the Court of Session, they were mistaken. Mr Salmond is back, and more determined than ever to re-enter active politics. This weekend, he cheekily declared that he was ending the ”uncivil war” between himself and the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. This both confirmed that the war existed, and effectively blamed her – or rather her close advisers – for perpetuating it.

Mr Salmond’s face then appeared two days running on the front pages of the National newspaper. This would have infuriated many in the leadership who believe that place is reserved for the First Minister. In an interview, Mr Salmond positioned himself as the moral leader of the emerging Independence Now faction in the Scottish National Party. “There’s not likely to be a better time to force the issue,” he declared, throwing down the gauntlet to Nicola Sturgeon.

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This has emboldened others who are unhappy about the lack of movement towards independence to speak out. They include a wide range of voices from the left-wing former SNP MP George Kerevan to the MP for the Western Isles Angus Brendan MacNeil, who has called for a referendum this autumn. The SNP’s partners in Holyrood, the Scottish Greens, are also calling for one before 2021. For the legions of independence supporters on social media it can’t come soon enough. Early referendum supporters have been dismayed by press reports that the SNP leadership is not convinced the time is right

Many of them rounded on the columnist Joyce MacMillan for suggesting that the SNP should endorse a wait-and-see approach to independence, rather as the campaign for a Scottish Parliament, of which Ms MacMillan was one of the leading figures, did during the Thatcher years. This was “a counsel of despair ... Unionism by another name .. betrayal of promise” according to the pro-independence blogger, James Kelly. Many echoed his words.

They say that the SNP leader promised Scottish voters would be given a choice on independence before Brexit was finalised. The SNP has a referendum mandate, thanks to the vote in the Scottish Parliament two years ago. But this will expire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, after which there is no guarantee that the SNP will be able to win another Holyrood vote for a second independence referendum. Many believe Ms Sturgeon’s recent pivot to an EU referendum will divert attention from “the only referendum that matters”.

But what exactly do they want her to do, given that the polls have hardly moved since the 2014 referendum? Some want to turn the Scottish Parliament into a National Convention and effectively declare UDI, which would be unconstitutional. Others want an unauthorised, Catalan-style referendum, even though that would probably be boycotted by No voters. Just about everyone wants her to demand a immediate Section 30 order from Westminster to trigger a referendum, and to hell with the consequences. Many are eager for extra-parliamentary action. Mr Kerevan has suggested that 5,000 Scots should disrupt the London Underground during the rush hour.

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When Ian Blackford led the walkout of SNP MPs in Westminster in June over the “power grab”, the media certainly noticed, and there was more coverage of the Withdrawal Agreement’s impact on the Scottish Parliament than in the previous six months. SNP activists were led to expect a continuing campaign of parliamentary disruption that would emulate the Irish Home Rulers of Charles Stewart Parnell. Nothing happened. Parnell is Mr Salmond’s political hero; he would have used any and every opportunity to create procedural chaos in Westminster. The young Alex Salmond began his career by being suspended from Parliament in 1988 after he disrupted the Budget.

Of course, to many moderates in the SNP this is futile attention-seeking. What’s the point of making all that noise only to end up calling for a referendum which Westminster will refuse? Exactly two years ago, Ms Sturgeon did precisely that and had to back down after Theresa May said “now is not the time”. The SNP lost a third of its seats in the subsequent General Election. Why would she risk doing that again?

Well, the answer from Mr Salmond is that times change. The UK Establishment is suffering its own crisis and that this must throw up opportunities provided that a mass movement is mobilised. Of course, no one, least of all Mr Salmond, is calling for illegal action, still less violence. However, many “45” activists in the party would gladly break the law to break the logjam. They think Scotland has been taken for granted for too long.

This is not really a rerun of the “gradualist versus fundamentalist” split of the 1990s. Mr Salmond, after all, was the greatest gradualist of them all. It is more a divide between populism and small-c conservatism. Mr Salmond is an emotional, insurgent politician who believes in mobilising mass support to disrupt the status quo. He will use any means to get the message across, including using the channels of the Russian state broadcaster, RT.

Ms Sturgeon is a cautious Scottish lawyer, dedicated to constitutional propriety, who declined to intervene in the extradition of the former Catalan education minister Clara Ponsati. She avoided appearing at the biggest independence demonstration in Scottish history held by All Under One Banner in Edinburgh in October. Mr Salmond would not doubt have sought to build that into a Catalan-style peoples revolt.

Ms Sturgeon is going to have to make a move on independence soon, probably by requesting another Section 30. She already knows Westminster’s response, and may try to turn the 2021 Scottish election campaign into a kind of referendum on independence by default. But she will never declare UDI and I can’t see her staging an unlawful referendum after what happened in Catalonia in 2017. Her priority now will be to keep Mr Salmond somehow in the big tent. Whatever her personal feelings, Nicola Sturgeon will have to find some way of re-friending her former mentor if she wants to keep her party united.

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