ALL forms of Brexit will negatively impact the NHS, but a 'no-deal' exit from the EU would be a worst-case scenario, according to a study published in the Lancet today.
A no-deal Brexit would have negative impacts on NHS workforce, financing, availability of medicines and vaccines, and on the sharing of information and medical research, it said.
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Academics from the universities of Oxford and Sheffield and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine modelled four possible scenarios and compared the prospects for the NHS under each exit arrangement.
Under a no-deal Brexit, a proposed minimum salary threshold of £30,000 per year for immigrants "could seriously limit immigration of many health workers to the UK".
All reciprocal healthcare arrangements would also cease in 2019 under a no-deal exit, making health insurance "particularly expensive for older UK residents and people with pre-existing conditions".
Access to capital financing for NHS infrastructure via the European Investment Bank "would be negatively impacted in all scenarios", and the UK is likely to become a less attractive base for global pharmaceutical companies to launch new medicines - potentially meaning a two-year wait for new drugs in the UK.
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A no-deal Brexit would also have an "immediate and drastic effect" on supply chains for medicines, vaccines, medical devices and equipment.
The impact of Brexit on the NHS is only slightly less harmful in models of the Northern Ireland Backstop arrangement, or a 'Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU' scenario.
Excluding remaining in the EU, the 'best-cases scenario' for the NHS according to the authors was adopting Prime Minister Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement.
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They said this would ensure reciprocal healthcare arrangements continue alongside legal provisions to secure supply chains for medicines, vaccines, medical devices and equipment - but only until 2020.
Co-author Professor Martin Mc Kee, ofthe London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Some people will dismiss our analysis as 'Project Fear'. But with just over a month to go to Brexit, we need to move beyond slogans.
"We have set out the problems in detail, based on the best available evidence. If others disagree, then they owe it to the British people to say why. It just isn’t good enough to keep saying that 'something will work out' without any details of exactly how.”
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