Timeline.
With the cross-party talks failing, the European elections next week, a key Commons vote due soon, Theresa May’s departure from No 10 pencilled in, a Tory leadership contest on the horizon, and the EU’s Brexit deadline looming, the political calendar is crammed with important developments ahead.
*May 17.
After six weeks Brexit cross-party talks collapse with May and Corbyn blaming each other.
*May 21/22.
PM had promised so-called “definitive votes” on various options. But senior party source says “no decision” made yet.
*May 23-26.
Euro-poll. Tories expecting disaster with polls putting them as low as 9%. Farage’s Brexit Party set to win. Conservative drubbing could even prompt some Cabinet ministers to say enough is enough and call time on May during Whitsun recess.
*June 3.
Start of three-day Trump state visit, including royal banquet and D-Day commemorations. Plus, protests.
*June 4.
MPs return with crunch Brexit Bill vote due that week. PM will meet 1922 chief Brady to decide timetable for her departure. Tory leadership election could be called in days.
*June 6.
Peterborough by-election resulting from ousting of Labour MP Fiona Onasanya. Tory fear is another hammering that could see Farage’s Brexit Party win.
*June 15.
National Conservative Convention of party’s activists. Was expected to hold non-binding vote of no confidence in PM. But by then and on back or Brexit Bill result, May’s date of departure set to be known and leadership contest could have already begun.
*June 28-29.
G20 summit in Osaka. PM’s international swansong.
*June/July/August.
Tory leadership contest, potentially with as many as 12 candidates, will run through summer. Various initial voting stages to whittle field down to just two, who will then embark on cross-country hustings. Likely to go through June and July with new leader announced in August.
*August.
First act of new premier will be to go and see European Commission.
*Sept 29 – Oct 2.
Annual Tory conference in Manchester will become launchpad for new party leader’s premiership.
*Oct 7.
MPs return to Westminster post-conference season to thrash out Brexit plan.
*Oct 17/18.
European Council. Britain’s last? If no agreement reached at Parliament, question will be should EU leaders grant yet another extension. If not, UK looking at two choices: face no-deal exit or revoke Brexit. General election?
*Oct 31.
EU’s deadline for Britain to leave.
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