US-China trade tensions could mean "wild ride" for rest of globe

"A full-blown trade war between the US and China would put a significant dent in global economic recovery. This has a knock-on effect for every individual company reliant on exports, not to mention households, businesses and the wider Scottish economy."

She said it was "too early" to say what impact the current state of play being enacted on the world’s stage would have on Scotland’s exports.

"But their importance to the foundations of our economy cannot be understated. We are a nation of global traders – total exports are worth over £80 billion to the Scottish economy a year."

US President Donald Trump's trade war with China heated up this week.

In response to fresh US tariffs on Chinese imports, China declared tariff increases on $60bn worth of goods.

Trump made several tweets about the issue this week, claiming, for example, on Tuesday: "In one year tariffs have rebuilt our steel industry – it is booming! We placed a 25% tariff on 'dumped' steel from China and other countries, and we now have a big and growing industry. We had to save Steel for our defense and auto industries, both of which are coming back strong!"

That same day he tweeted: "When the time is right we will make a deal with China. My respect and friendship with President Xi is unlimited but, as I have told him many times before, this must be a great deal for the United States or it just doesn’t make any sense. We have to be allowed to make up some of the tremendous ground we have lost to China on Trade since the ridiculous one sided formation of the WTO. It will all happen, and much faster than people think!"

Developments have been watched with alarm by other countries, not least those with other issues to contend with.

Liz Cameron said: "In the UK and Scotland, we have been – understandably – transfixed by the uncertainty that has been unleashed by two years of car-crash Brexit negotiations. But what also has been highlighted in the Scottish Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Economic Indicator survey is concern for how the slowing global economy will hit home, with increased caution and lower confidence for businesses as they try to navigate even more uncertainty.

"China is a vast and growing market of immense possibilities. Last year SCC led a ten-day Trade Mission to Shenzhen, Beijing and Shandong Province. What we discovered there was an almost insatiable demand for a range of products and services that play to the strengths of Scottish companies. These included electronic information, artificial intelligence, bioscience, manufacturing, engineering, energy, logistics, agriculture, and food and drink, to name a few.

"What we also found was that the progress of our relationship will depend on the strength of interpersonal and business-to-business relations. We all know that in life, whether it be business or civic society, “people buy from people” and therefore everything we do is rooted in relationships.

"Maximising exporting and international trade opportunities is a priority for Scottish business and will underpin Scotland’s future economic growth for decades to come, as well as creating new jobs and increasing productivity. If history tells us anything it is that open markets make us all richer and barriers to trade don’t."

She added: "In my role as CEO of SCC, I will be representing Scottish businesses on the UK Government's new Strategic Trade Advisory Group. This body has been formed to advise the government on future strategic trade policy issues, including on future trade agreements across the globe.

As part of this we will be consulting with businesses across Scotland for their views on where they want to go and how they want to get there, making sure future trade policies work for Scotland.

Fundamental to our success will be the establishment of principles of mutual respect and multi-lateral co-operation. This is the key as we shape the country’s future trade policy at this critical time."